申万期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250718

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The protein meal market: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal showed a strong and volatile trend. The US - Indonesia trade agreement reduced the soybean tariff from 32% to 19%, with Indonesia planning to purchase $4.5 billion worth of US agricultural products. There were also sales of US soybeans to unknown destinations, and the US soybean biodiesel policy supported prices. However, the domestic supply - side pressure limited the upside, and the domestic continuous meal was expected to maintain a strong and volatile short - term trend [3]. - The oil market: Night trading of oils was strong. The MPOB report was neutral - bearish, but high - frequency data showed a month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil exports. Indian imports changed significantly, with a 60% month - on - month increase in palm oil imports in June. With strong demand, palm oil prices were expected to be supported, and the overall oil market was expected to remain in a volatile pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Futures Market - Domestic Futures: For domestic futures, the previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties had different changes. For example, the closing price of soybean oil futures was 8072, up 30 with a 0.37% increase; palm oil was 8796, up 74 with a 0.85% increase; and rapeseed oil was 9440, down 30 with a - 3.15% decrease. There were also changes in spreads and price - ratio spreads [2]. - International Futures: In the international futures market, the previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 4158 ringgit/ton, up 49 with a 1.19% increase; CBOT soybeans were 1027 cents/bushel, up 8 with a 0.74% increase; CBOT US soybean oil was 56 cents/pound, up 1 with a 2.71% increase; and CBOT US soybean meal was 284 dollars/ton, up 1 with a 0.21% increase [2]. Spot Market - Domestic Spot Prices: Domestic spot prices also had different changes. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was 8230, with a 0.00% change; Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil was 8240, with a 0.24% increase; and the spot price of Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil was 8870, with a 0.00% change [2]. - Spot Spreads and Basis: There were corresponding changes in spot spreads and basis. For example, the spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil remained at - 570, and the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was 158 [2]. Industry Information - Palm Oil Industry: Indonesia increased the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio from 35% to 40%. Malaysia's August reference price for crude palm oil was significantly higher than that in July, and the export tax increased from 8.5% to 9% [3]. - Protein Meal Industry: The US and Indonesia reached a trade agreement to reduce the soybean tariff, and Indonesia planned to purchase $4.5 billion worth of US agricultural products, which boosted the market's confidence in US soybean exports [3].