EBSCN(SH:601788) EBSCN·2025-07-18 05:05Group 1: Retail Data Overview - In June 2025, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.1% and rebounding from a previous decline of 0.9%[2] - Core retail sales (excluding automobiles and gasoline) rose by 0.5%, exceeding the forecast of 0.3% and improving from a revised previous value of -0.2%[2] - Key sectors showing strong performance included grocery stores (+1.8%), automobiles (+1.2%), building materials (+0.9%), and clothing (+0.9%)[11] Group 2: Economic Implications - Despite the positive retail data, the resilience of the U.S. economy is questioned due to potential tariff impacts and inflation adjustments[4] - The actual retail sales growth, adjusted for inflation (CPI increase of 0.3%), was only 0.3% in June, indicating limited consumer strength[4][9] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious approach, with a 97.4% probability of no rate cut in July and a likelihood of two rate cuts in the second half of 2025[5][15]