Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry chain is currently affected by factors such as supply - demand mismatch, new device production expectations, and seasonal consumption patterns. PX has strong bottom support due to low inventory, but its future benefit depends on unexpected factors. The supply side of PX lacks positive support, and the downstream start - up has a strong downward expectation. PTA is expected to move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor. Polyester products' prices are generally under pressure due to weakening supply - demand expectations. It is predicted that PX, PTA, and PR will operate strongly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - Upstream: On July 17, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $67.54 per barrel (up 1.75%), and that of Brent crude oil was $69.52 per barrel (up 1.46%). The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $574.75 per ton (down 1.14%), and the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $692 per ton (down 1.91%) [1]. - PTA: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,714 yuan per ton (up 0.17%), and the settlement price was 4,708 yuan per ton (unchanged). The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4,734 yuan per ton (up 0.25%) [1]. - PX: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,742 yuan per ton (up 0.39%), and the settlement price was 6,714 yuan per ton (down 0.12%). The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,686 yuan per ton (unchanged) [1]. - PR: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,902 yuan per ton (up 0.27%), and the settlement price was 5,894 yuan per ton (up 0.20%). The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,935 yuan per ton (up 0.17%), and in the South China market was 6,010 yuan per ton (up 0.17%) [1]. - Downstream: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY decreased by 1.16% to 8,500 yuan per ton, the index of polyester POY decreased by 1.42% to 6,950 yuan per ton, and the index of polyester short - fiber decreased by 0.23% to 6,605 yuan per ton [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 78.32% (down 0.66 percentage points), the PTA factory load rate was 80.59% (unchanged), the polyester factory load rate was 87.15% (unchanged), the bottle chip factory load rate was 71.93% (unchanged), and the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 58.02% (down 1.10 percentage points) [1]. Production and Sales - The production - sales rate of polyester filament was 40% (down 2 percentage points), the production - sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 53% (up 9 percentage points), and the production - sales rate of polyester chips was 53% (down 10 percentage points) [1]. Device Information - The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 3.3 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng New Materials reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technical transformation for three months starting from August 1 [2]. Important Information - International crude oil prices rebounded after three consecutive days of decline due to low inventory in the peak summer demand season and renewed concerns about Middle East geopolitics. PTA will have new device production in the third quarter, which is mismatched with PX in time. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, but its supply side lacks positive support, and the downstream start - up has a strong downward expectation. The market is trading on the maintenance expectation of PTA under low processing fees, but new device production expectations on the supply side and weak demand in the off - season limit price increases [2]. Trading Strategy - PTA fluctuated lower, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,714 yuan per ton (up 0.13%) and an intraday trading volume of 691,800 lots; PX prices returned to consolidation, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,742 yuan per ton (up 0.30%) and an intraday trading volume of 159,700 lots; PR followed the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,902 yuan per ton (up 0.34%) and an intraday trading volume of 37,400 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate strongly [2].
PX&PTA&PR早评-20250718
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-18 05:11