Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the commercial retail industry for the second quarter of 2025, indicating expectations for industry performance to exceed overall market performance [3][4]. Core Insights - The retail sector showed a year-on-year growth of 5.0% in the first half of 2025, driven by consumption policies and strong online retail performance, which grew by 8.5% [4]. - Major e-commerce platforms are focusing on core businesses and AI-driven growth, with Alibaba, JD, Meituan, and Pinduoduo all increasing investments in instant retail and food delivery services [4]. - The jewelry sector is expected to see strong demand for gold bars and high-end products, with a year-on-year growth of 11.3% in jewelry retail sales in the first half of 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Sector - Alibaba's revenue for Q1 FY26 is projected to reach 249.2 billion yuan, a 2.4% increase year-on-year, while its net profit is expected to decline by 12% [4][6]. - JD's revenue is forecasted to grow by 15.2% to 335.7 billion yuan in Q2 2025, but its net profit is anticipated to drop by 70% [4][6]. - Meituan's revenue is expected to increase by 12.3% to 92.3 billion yuan, with a net profit decline of 20.2% [4][6]. - Pinduoduo's revenue is projected to grow by 8.3% to 105.1 billion yuan, with a net profit decrease of 29.3% [4][6]. Jewelry Sector - The report anticipates strong gold bar sales and a gradual recovery in gold jewelry demand, with several brands expected to outperform the market [4]. - Notable companies include Lao Pu Gold, which is expected to significantly outperform the industry, and Cai Bai Co., which is projected to see a revenue increase of 25%-35% in Q2 2025 [4]. Retail Commercial Sector - The report highlights various retail companies, including Miniso, which is expected to see a revenue increase of 19.8% in Q2 2025 [4]. - Yonghui Supermarket is projected to face short-term losses due to store adjustments, with a net loss forecasted at 388 million yuan [4]. - Chongqing Department Store is expected to see a net profit increase of 8.0% in Q2 2025 [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on e-commerce companies that are committed to core businesses and investing in AI and instant retail, such as Alibaba, JD, Meituan, and Pinduoduo [4]. - It also recommends high-quality jewelry brands and retail companies undergoing digital transformation and upgrades [4].
商业零售行业2025年二季报业绩前瞻：平台加码即时零售，关注优质新消费标的
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-07-18 05:10