铁矿石：宏观与基本面共振，矿价短期偏强运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - International macro uncertainty weakens and risk preference rises, combined with a short - term increase in domestic macro expectations. The market trading focus may gradually shift to "strong reality + strong expectation". With the decrease in foreign ore shipments and the high - level decline of arrivals leading to inventory depletion, and demand remaining at a relatively high level, it is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will fluctuate within a range with a strong upward trend. Later, attention should be paid to the incremental policies of the Politburo meeting [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Logic - The market has gradually accepted the Trump TACO deal, and the marginal impact of Sino - US tariffs has weakened. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the market risk preference becomes positive, which boosts the valuation of commodities. In China, monetary and fiscal policies are taking effect in advance, with existing policies providing support and strong expectations for incremental policies. The macro - environment has a positive impact on iron ore prices, and short - term macro expectations dominate price movements, combined with a reversal of fundamental expectations [2] Supply - Recent foreign ore shipments have entered a phased decline cycle. Australian BHP and FMG mines entered the maintenance period in early July after the fiscal - year volume rush, while Brazilian shipments remained at a relatively medium - to - high level. Short - term arrivals are expected to decline from the high level, reducing the near - end supply pressure. However, the recent rebound of the overseas price to $100/ton may stimulate an increase in non - mainstream ore supply if the price remains high [2] Demand - China's daily average hot metal production has stopped falling and rebounded, with the current daily average hot metal output at 242.44 (a month - on - month increase of 2.63). The current profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high, and the blast furnace profit is considerable. Coupled with the deep losses of the short - process steelmaking and the high cost - effectiveness of hot metal, the short - term demand for iron ore is expected to remain resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports the price [2] Inventory - Steel mills' daily consumption of imported ore has increased, and the inventory level has continued to decline. With the continuous rise of iron ore prices recently, the expectation of steel mills to replenish inventory is strong. Arrivals have declined from the high level, while the port clearance volume and hot metal output have increased simultaneously. The port inventory has slightly increased this period, and it is expected that the inventory will generally remain stable or decline slightly later [2] Price - The price will fluctuate with a strong upward trend [2]