宝城期货煤焦早报-20250718

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - For the 2509 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term trends are upward, the intraday trend is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is an oscillating approach. For the 2509 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term trends are upward, the intraday trend is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is also an oscillating approach [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For coking coal 2509, short - term: upward; medium - term: upward; intraday: oscillating strongly; view reference: oscillating approach; core logic: supported by strong expectations, coking coal continues to rise [1] - For coke 2509, short - term: upward; medium - term: upward; intraday: oscillating strongly; view reference: oscillating approach; core logic: dominated by bullish factors, coke oscillates and strengthens [1] Price and Market Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Commodity Futures Black Sector Coking Coal (JM) - Intraday view: oscillating strongly; medium - term view: upward; reference view: oscillating approach. The short - term fundamentals of coking coal have not improved significantly, and the supply side has increased marginally in the first two weeks of July. However, driven by positive news such as the US delaying the tariff exemption period and the domestic "anti - involution rectification", the market sentiment has continued to improve, driving the futures price to rebound. After General Secretary Xi Jinping's inspection in Shanxi, the market's bearish sentiment has temporarily receded. Currently, the market sentiment is good, and with the Politburo meeting in July, strong expectations dominate the market, and coking coal futures are expected to maintain a strong operation in the short term [5] Coke (J) - Intraday view: oscillating strongly; medium - term view: upward; reference view: oscillating approach. On the night session of July 17, the main coke contract continued to operate strongly. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of the first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the ex - warehouse price at Qingdao Port was 1270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.25%. The cost support has strengthened, driving up the expectation of a price increase for coke. In the futures market, the supply and demand of coke have both declined, but the market is mainly driven by strong expectations. Affected by multiple positive news at home and abroad, the main coke contract maintains a strong operation and may continue to oscillate upward [6]