国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250718

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly supported by macro - expectations [2][4]. - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, and log are expected to oscillate widely due to sustained market or tender sentiment [2][6][12][23]. - Coke is expected to oscillate widely after the first round of price increase is implemented, and coking coal is expected to oscillate widely [2][15]. - Steam coal is expected to stabilize after daily consumption recovers [2][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The futures price closed at 785.5 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan/ton or 1.62%. The open - port ore prices of various types increased by 8 - 10 yuan/ton, while the domestic ore prices remained stable. Some basis and spread values changed slightly [4]. - Macro and Industry News: The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing from July 14th to 15th [4]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: Rebar RB2510 closed at 3,133 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton or 0.80%. Hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,292 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton or 1.23%. The inventory, production, and apparent demand of steel products changed in the weekly data on July 17th [6][7]. - Macro and Industry News: In early July 2025, the average daily output of key steel enterprises decreased in crude steel, pig iron, and steel products. The steel inventory of key enterprises decreased compared to the previous ten - day period [7][9]. - Trend Intensity: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a relatively strong view [8]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia were 5250 yuan/ton and 5600 yuan/ton respectively. Some basis and spread values changed [12]. - Macro and Industry News: The prices and quotations of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. Some steel mills determined the procurement prices and quantities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral view [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: The futures prices of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 increased. Some spot prices of coking coal remained stable, while some coke spot prices increased. Some basis and spread values changed [15]. - Price and Position: The coking coal prices in northern ports were reported. The CCI metallurgical coal index on July 17th was announced. The position changes of coking coal and coke contracts were provided [15][16][17]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for coke and 1 for coking coal [17]. Steam Coal - Fundamentals: The ZC2507 contract had no trading. The prices of southern port foreign - trade steam coal and domestic production areas were reported. The position of the ZC2507 contract remained unchanged [20][21]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [22]. Log - Fundamentals: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts increased. The spot prices of most log products remained stable [24]. - Macro and Industry News: The Central Urban Work Conference was held from July 14th to 15th [26]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [26].