尿素早评：供应仍有压力，转机在于出口-20250718

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level and enterprise inventory still around 750,000 tons. The top - dressing demand in July will support the price, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. The subsequent turnaround lies in exports. (View score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - Urea Futures Prices: On July 17, compared with July 16, UR01 increased by 8 yuan/ton (0.58%), UR05 by 3 yuan/ton (0.17%), UR09 by 10 yuan/ton (0.56%), Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.56%), and Shanxi remained unchanged [1]. - Domestic Spot Prices: On July 17, compared with July 16, Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.55%), Hebei by 10 yuan/ton (-0.56%), Northeast by 10 yuan/ton (-0.56%), and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.56%) [1]. - Spread and Basis: The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 7 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 increased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - Upstream Costs: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream Prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Important Information The previous trading day, the urea futures main contract 2509 had an opening price of 1733 yuan/ton, a high of 1747 yuan/ton, a low of 1731 yuan/ton, a closing price of 1743 yuan/ton, a settlement price of 1740 yuan/ton, and a position of 198,012 lots [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy The previous trading day, UR fluctuated within a range and closed at 1743. The supply pressure of urea is large, and the subsequent turnaround depends on exports [1].