汽车行业新能源销量跟踪报告：25H1销量维持高增，中期需踏准节奏布局
Huachuang Securities·2025-07-18 05:51

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [3][28]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the automotive industry continue to show high growth, with wholesale sales in Q2 2025 reaching 3.57 million units, a year-on-year increase of 34% [6][8]. - The report anticipates that the total wholesale sales of NEVs for the year 2025 could reach 15.89 million units, representing a 31% increase compared to the previous year [6][18]. - The competitive landscape remains intense, with an increase in market concentration and discount rates, as well as a rise in retail penetration rates for NEVs [6][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The automotive industry comprises 232 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 521.23 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 335.37 billion yuan [3]. Sales Performance - In Q2 2025, NEV wholesale sales reached 3.57 million units, up 34% year-on-year, while retail sales were estimated at 2.96 million units, up 29% year-on-year [6][8]. - Exports of NEVs in Q2 2025 reached 520,000 units, a significant increase of 108% year-on-year [6][9]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the retail penetration rate for NEVs reached 53% in Q2 2025, an increase of 5.6 percentage points year-on-year [6][15]. - The average discount rate in the industry remains high, but there are signs of a decrease as the market stabilizes [6][12]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the upcoming reduction in purchase tax incentives for NEVs in 2026 may create short-term disruptions in sales, but the long-term outlook remains positive [6][16]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies with strong growth potential, such as Jianghuai Automobile and Li Auto, while also considering traditional fuel vehicle manufacturers like SAIC Motor and Great Wall Motors [6][18].