光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 7 月 18 日）-20250718

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment rating for cotton is "Oscillating Upward" [1] - The investment rating for sugar is "Range-Bound with an Uptrend" [1] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: On Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.41% to 68.84 cents per pound, and CF509 rose 2.19% to 14,250 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest increased by 19,226 lots to 587,600 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,316 yuan per ton, up 101 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,354 yuan per ton, up 82 yuan. Globally, the new - year cotton supply - demand is relatively loose, and the U.S. cotton inventory - to - sales ratio is high. In China, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price has moved up slightly, with the main contract's open interest increasing rapidly and the 9 - 1 and 9 - 11 spreads strengthening. Currently, low cotton inventory and short - term weather factors are driving the price, but the strong expectation of a cotton bumper harvest and limited short - term demand improvement will restrict the upside. In the short term, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price may still have some upside space and large volatility. Attention should be paid to the arbitrage space of the 09 contract. A strategy of selling high - priced out - of - the - money call options and buying low - priced out - of - the - money put options can be considered [1] - Sugar: In June 2025, China's refined sugar production was 337,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.6%, and the cumulative production from January to June was 9.404 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. The spot quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups and some processing sugar factories have minor adjustments. The raw sugar price rose due to the rumor of a U.S. cola formula change, but there is no obvious short - term market driver. In the domestic market, the domestic sugar price quotes are slightly loose, the trading volume is average, the processing sugar factories' operating rate is high, and the market is highly concerned about the June import data. The market is treated as range - bound with an uptrend [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 9 - 1 spread is 290, up 165; the main contract basis is 1,104, down 178. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,316 yuan per ton, up 101, and the national spot price is 15,354 yuan per ton, up 82 [2] - Sugar: The 9 - 1 spread is 169, up 3; the main contract basis is 252, down 20. The Nanning spot price is 6,050 yuan per ton, unchanged, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,080 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] 2. Market Information - Cotton: On July 17, the cotton futures warehouse receipts were 9,585, down 58 from the previous day, with 223 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 15,316 yuan per ton, Henan 15,411 yuan per ton, Shandong 15,302 yuan per ton, and Zhejiang 15,617 yuan per ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 49.9, unchanged, the yarn comprehensive inventory was 30.1, down 0.1, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.1, unchanged, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.8, unchanged [3] - Sugar: On July 17, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were unchanged at 6,050 yuan per ton and 6,080 yuan per ton respectively. The sugar futures warehouse receipts were 21,857, down 432 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4] 3. Chart Analysis - There are multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, spread, warehouse receipts, and price index of the main contracts, showing the historical data trends from 2021 - 2025 [6][14] 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry [19] - Zhang Linglu is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda ash glass [20] - Sun Chengzhen is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research on cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [21]