黑色商品日报-20250718

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Narrow - range consolidation [1] - Iron ore: Strong - side oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Coke: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Manganese silicon: Limited upside space [1] - Ferrosilicon: Some support [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with slightly accumulated inventory but still at a low level, and there are insufficient market contradictions and drivers. The iron ore market has a strong - side support from high - level hot metal production, despite a small increase in port inventory. The coking coal and coke markets are affected by factors such as production resumption, policy, and environmental protection, and are expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are driven by market sentiment, but the fundamentals have limited driving force for price increases [1][3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures price rose, and the spot price also increased slightly with rising trading volume. The production decreased, inventory slightly accumulated, and apparent demand dropped significantly. It is expected to move in a narrow range in the short term [1]. - Iron ore: The futures price continued to rise, and the port spot price was strong. Supply decreased slightly last week, and demand increased with the rise in hot metal production. It is expected to continue the strong - side oscillation [1]. - Coking coal: The futures price rose, and the spot price in the Mongolian coal market was strong. Domestic coal mines are resuming production, and Indonesia plans to levy an export tax. Demand is weak, but it is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term [1]. - Coke: The futures price rose, and the spot price at ports remained stable. The first price increase of coke enterprises was implemented, and some regions had production restrictions. Demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term [1]. - Manganese silicon: The futures price strengthened, and the spot price was basically stable. Steel tenders are ongoing, and the supply is increasing while demand is slightly decreasing. The price has some support but limited upside space [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The futures price strengthened, and the spot price was basically stable. Market sentiment improved, supply increased slightly, and demand decreased slightly. The price has some support, but the upside space is not large [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract spreads: Different contracts of various varieties have different spread changes, such as the 10 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. [4]. - Basis: The basis of each variety's contracts also changed, for example, the basis of rebar 10 - contract decreased by 7 yuan [4]. - Profit and spreads: The profit of rebar on the futures market decreased by 5.9, and there were also changes in other profit indicators and spreads such as the coil - rebar spread and coke - coal ratio [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main contract prices: The document provides price trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13]. - Main contract basis: It shows basis trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc., with different time - series bases presented [19][20]. - Inter - period contract spreads: There are spread trend charts for different contracts of various varieties, like the 10 - 01 and 01 - 05 spreads of rebar [27]. - Inter - variety contract spreads: It includes spread trend charts for different varieties, such as the coil - rebar spread and rebar - iron ore ratio [41]. - Rebar profit: There are profit trend charts for rebar, including the futures market profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [46][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The team includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black - metal research field [52][53].