光大期货工业硅、多晶硅日报（2025 年 7 月 18 日）-20250718

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 17, industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2509 closing at 8,745 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 0.75%, and the open interest increasing by 1,200 lots to 381,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,111 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rose to 8,700 yuan/ton, and the spot shifted from a premium to a discount of 15 yuan/ton. Polysilicon oscillated higher, with the main contract 2508 closing at 45,700 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 7.5%, and the open interest decreasing by 819 lots to 70,964 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon materials rose to 45,550 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon materials rose to 43,500 yuan/ton. The spot shifted from a premium to a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the main contract. The possible cancellation of subsidized electricity prices in Xinjiang and the non-restart of production capacity by large factories led to a continuous recovery of industrial silicon prices as costs increased. There are currently many disagreements in the market, and the overall transmission is limited, making it difficult for prices to continue to rise sharply. Guided by policies, the confidence of the photovoltaic industry chain to support prices has spread downstream. The futures market has followed the spot market, continuing to trade based on the logic of speculative demand. The polysilicon market is generally stronger than the industrial silicon market. Continued attention should be paid to the opportunity for the PS/SI price ratio to widen [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 30 yuan/ton to 8,710 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract increased by 45 yuan/ton to 8,715 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 8,700 yuan/ton, and the spot shifted from a premium of 3 yuan/ton to a discount of 15 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 50,215 tons. The weekly inventory in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 7,360 tons to 251,145 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 4,800 tons to 437,900 tons [4] - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main and near-month contracts both increased by 2,755 yuan/ton to 45,700 yuan/ton. The price of P-type polysilicon dense materials and recycled materials increased by 3,500 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 45,500 yuan/ton, and the spot shifted from a premium of 555 yuan/ton to a discount of 200 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2,780 tons. The weekly factory inventory increased by 0.3 million tons to 27.68 million tons, and the total social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons to 27.7 million tons [4] - Organic Silicon: The DMC price in the East China market remained stable at 11,200 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [4] - Downstream Products: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged [4] Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices: Included charts on various grades of industrial silicon prices, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and silicon coal prices [5][7][10] - Downstream Product Prices: Included charts on DMC prices, organic silicon product prices, polysilicon prices, silicon wafer prices, battery cell prices, and component prices [12][14][16] - Inventory: Included charts on industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][22] - Cost and Profit: Included charts on the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [25][27][33] Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research and a senior precious metals researcher. Wang Heng mainly studies aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel [35][36]