有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 18 日）-20250718

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - Copper: Overnight, LME copper rose 0.43% to $9,678/ton, and SHFE copper主力 rose 0.46% to 78,260 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import remained in a loss, but the loss narrowed. US retail sales in June alleviated concerns about consumer spending contraction. LME and Comex copper inventories increased, while domestic social copper inventories decreased. Copper demand showed a short - term recovery, but the off - season led to weak consumption. There is no significant positive factor for copper, and its price trend is unclear. A 50% copper tariff may cause short - term high volatility [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all trended strongly. Guinea's policy on bauxite raised cost concerns. Domestic factors and low inventory levels supported the price. The near - month contract is expected to remain strong, and trading within the 20,000 - level range is recommended. The off - season effect is more obvious for aluminum alloy [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel rose 0.5% to $15,065/ton, and沪镍 rose 0.72% to 120,490 yuan/ton. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories decreased. In the stainless - steel industry, inventories of different series changed, and in the new - energy industry, demand and production increased slightly. The short - term trend is oscillatory, and overseas policy impacts should be watched out for [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Overnight price increases in LME and SHFE copper. The US economic data influenced the market. Inventory changes were mixed, with an increase in overseas and a decrease in domestic social inventories. Demand recovered slightly but was still weak due to the off - season. The price trend is unclear, and a potential tariff may cause volatility [1]. - Aluminum: All aluminum - related products trended strongly. Cost concerns from Guinea's policy and domestic factors supported the price. The near - month contract is expected to be strong, and the off - season affects aluminum alloy more [1][2]. - Nickel: Price increases in LME and沪镍. Inventory decreases in LME and SHFE. Changes in stainless - steel and new - energy industry inventories and production. The short - term trend is oscillatory, and overseas policies may cause disturbances [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: Price changes in various copper products, including flat - water copper, scrap copper, etc. Inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and social inventories. Changes in LME0 - 3 premium, CIF提单, and active contract import profit and loss [3]. - Lead: Price decreases in various lead products. Inventory increases in LME and上期所. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [3]. - Aluminum: Price increases in无锡 and南海 aluminum quotes. Inventory changes in LME,上期所, and social inventories. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [4]. - Nickel: Price decreases in金川镍 and some nickel - related products. Inventory changes in LME,上期所, and social inventories. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [4]. - Zinc: The主力结算价 rose 0.3%. Inventory changes in上期所 and LME. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [5]. - Tin: The主力结算价 fell 0.7%. Inventory changes in上期所 and LME. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot升贴水: Charts show the spot升贴 water trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][11]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [13][16][17]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [19][21][23]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [26][28][30]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - Smelting Profit: Charts show the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [39][41][43]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, a senior researcher with over a decade of experience, Wang Heng, who focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi, who focuses on lithium - nickel research [46][47].