贵金属日评：美国稳定币等相关法案获得通过，美国6月零售销售高于预期前值-20250718

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The passage of the US stable - coin related bill and the permission for pension funds to invest in gold and digital currencies, along with the increased probability of the Fed's interest rate cuts, combined with global central banks' continuous gold purchases and geopolitical risks, may make precious metal prices prone to rising and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on pull - backs [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Data - Shanghai Gold: Closing price was 770.92, trading volume was 375362.00, and open interest was 203084.00 on 2025 - 07 - 17. Compared with the previous day, the closing price decreased by 1.28, and the trading volume increased by 115912.00 [1]. - Spot Shanghai Gold T + D: Trading volume was 31414.00, and open interest was 208770.00 on 2025 - 07 - 17. Compared with the previous day, the trading volume increased by 4344.00, and the open interest decreased by 416.00 [1]. - Shanghai Silver: Closing price was 9109.00 (yuan/kg), trading volume was 906865.00, and open interest was 438247.00 for the futures active contract on 2025 - 07 - 17. The inventory was 1217085.00 (ten - gram). Compared with the previous day, the closing price increased by 14.00, the trading volume increased by 142149.00, and the open interest increased by 7726.00 [1]. - Spot Shanghai Silver T + D: Trading volume was 281830.00, and open interest was 3331190.00 on 2025 - 07 - 17. Compared with the previous day, the trading volume decreased by 201968.00, and the open interest decreased by 3094.00 [1]. - COMEX Gold Futures Active Contract: Closing price was 3345.40, trading volume was 158850.00, and open interest was 292651.00 on 2025 - 07 - 17. The inventory was 37143884.29 (troy ounces). Compared with the previous day, the closing price decreased by 8.80, the trading volume decreased by 73659.00, and the open interest decreased by 4040.00 [1]. - London Gold Spot: Price was 3318.50 (USD/ounce) on 2025 - 07 - 17. Compared with the previous day, it decreased by 5.30 [1]. - COMEX Silver Futures Active Contract: Closing price was 38.44, trading volume was 44163.00, and open interest was 128633.00 on 2025 - 07 - 17. The inventory was 496688540.88 (troy ounces). Compared with the previous day, the closing price increased by 0.31, the trading volume decreased by 11547.00, and the open interest increased by 322.00 [1]. - London Silver Spot: Price was 37.76 (USD/ounce) on 2025 - 07 - 17. Compared with the previous day, it decreased by 0.12 [1]. Price Ratios - The ratio of Shanghai gold to Shanghai silver was 84.69 on 2025 - 07 - 17, decreasing by 0.17 compared with the previous day [1]. - The ratio of New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 87.04 on 2025 - 07 - 17, decreasing by 0.94 compared with the previous day [1]. - The ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 87.90 on 2025 - 07 - 17, increasing by 0.14 compared with the previous day [1]. Other Commodities and Financial Indicators - Crude Oil: INE crude oil was 516.80 (yuan/barrel), ICE Brent crude oil was 68.71 (USD/barrel), and NYMEX crude oil was 66.31 (USD/barrel) on 2025 - 07 - 17. Compared with the previous day, INE crude oil decreased by 0.60, ICE Brent crude oil increased by 0.94, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 0.33 [1]. - Base Metals: Shanghai copper futures were 77840.00 (yuan/ton), LME copper spot was 9678.00 (USD/ton), Shanghai rebar was 3133.00 (yuan/ton), and Dalian iron ore was 785.50 (yuan/ton) on 2025 - 07 - 17. Compared with the previous day, Shanghai copper futures decreased by 140.00, LME copper spot increased by 41.00, Shanghai rebar increased by 27.00, and Dalian iron ore increased by 12.50 [1]. - Interest Rates: Shanghai Inter - Bank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.46, SHIBOR one - year was 1.62, US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.4700, US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 2.0100, and US 10 - year Treasury break - even inflation rate was 2.4300 on 2025 - 07 - 17. Compared with the previous day, SHIBOR overnight decreased by 0.00, SHIBOR one - year remained unchanged, US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield increased by 0.01, US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield increased by 0.03, and US 10 - year Treasury break - even inflation rate increased by 0.02 [1]. - Exchange Rates: The US dollar index was 98.6419, the US dollar - to - RMB central parity rate was 7.1461, and the euro - to - RMB central parity rate was 8.3207 on 2025 - 07 - 17. Compared with the previous day, the US dollar index increased by 0.36, the US dollar - to - RMB central parity rate decreased by 0.01, and the euro - to - RMB central parity rate increased by 0.01 [1]. - Stock Indices: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3516.8255, the S&P 500 was 6263.7000, the UK FTSE 100 was 8972.6400, the French CAC40 was 7822.0000, the German DAX was 24370.9300, the Nikkei 225 was 39901.1900, and the South Korean Composite Index was 3192.2900 on 2025 - 07 - 17. Compared with the previous day, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 13.05, the S&P 500 increased by 34.10, the UK FTSE 100 increased by 105.62, the French CAC40 increased by 99.91, the German DAX increased by 361.55, the Nikkei 225 increased by 237.79, and the South Korean Composite Index increased by 5.91 [1]. Important Information - The US House of Representatives passed a stable - coin related bill and will allow pension funds to invest in gold, digital currencies, etc.; the import tariff pushed up commodity prices, leading to a rise in the US consumer - end inflation CPI annual rate in June. However, since the US producer - end inflation PPI annual rate in June was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value, the expectation of Powell's early departure and the Fed's interest rate cuts increased, raising the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September/December [1]. - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, lowering the deposit mechanism rate to 2%. The eurozone and German (French) manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4/49 (47.8), continuing to rise (lower than expected and the previous value). The eurozone (German) consumer price index CPI annual rate in June was 2% (2%), meeting expectations but higher than the previous value. Lagarde said that the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts were nearing the end, but the market expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates 1 - 2 times before the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in May to 4.25% and continued to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The UK consumer price index CPI (core CPI) annual rate in June was 3.6% (3.7%), higher than expected and the previous value. The UK SPCT manufacturing (services) PMI in June was 47.7 (51.3), higher (higher) than expected and the previous value. However, since the UK GDP in May was - 0.1%, lower than expected but higher than the previous value, the expectation of the Bank of England cutting interest rates in August has increased, and it may cut interest rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.5%, and may start to reduce its quarterly government bond purchases from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The Japanese (Tokyo) consumer price index core (CPI) annual rate in June was 3.3% (3.1%), meeting expectations but lower than the previous value (lower than expected and the previous value). The Bank of Japan still has the expectation of raising interest rates before the end of 2025 [1]. Trading Strategies - Due to the passage of the US stable - coin related bill and the permission for pension funds to invest, the increased probability of the Fed's interest rate cuts, combined with global central banks' continuous gold purchases and geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on pull - backs. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3150 - 3250 and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 730 - 760 and the resistance level around 800 - 850; for London silver, focus on the support level around 35 - 37 and the resistance level around 40 - 43; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8600 - 9000 and the resistance level around 9500 - 10000 [1].