海外供应扰动仍存，关注需求支撑强度

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for methanol is "Bullish" [7] Core Viewpoint - The report believes that methanol will likely be in a relatively strong position in the second half of 2025. Supply - side production is less likely to exceed expectations, and there are still factors disturbing the supply such as environmental protection restrictions and geopolitical issues. On the demand side, although the prices and profits of downstream products are expected to face pressure, the high - operation rate of MTO and the synergistic effect of integrated plants will support the overall operation rate. Potential geopolitical disturbances and concerns about Iranian natural gas supply may affect imports and port inventories, leading to a bullish outlook [5]. Summary by Directory 1. First - half Review - In the first half of 2025 (before the Israel - Iran conflict), methanol futures prices showed an overall downward trend, mainly due to upstream cost collapse and demand - side concerns. The domestic coal price dropped from 760 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to around 620 yuan/ton at the end of June, compared with around 850 yuan/ton in the same period last year. Methanol downstream demand was weak, with the traditional demand sectors like dimethyl ether, MTBE, and BDO having a downward - trending operation rate. MTO, although with a high operation rate, was in a loss state [16]. 2. Supply - In the second half of the year, the cost side will have limited incremental impact on the overall fundamentals. Coal prices are expected to remain low, so the profit of coal - to - methanol is likely to stay high, and the operation rate will probably remain strong. The market capacity growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to be limited (about 3 - 5%). Although the probability of maintenance increases, the operation rate will still be at a high level. It is expected that the production growth rate of methanol in the second half of the year will be 4% [21][24][25]. 3. Demand - The profit of MTO is likely to face long - term pressure and fall into a difficult situation. However, MTO may continue to maintain a high operation rate in the second half of the year due to the synergistic effect of integrated plants. Traditional downstream industries have their profits compressed, which may cause a certain decline in the operation load. For example, dimethyl ether is in the stage of capacity replacement and clearance, formaldehyde is in a situation of oversupply, and MTBE has a high inventory pressure. In emerging demand, DMC's demand support may strengthen in the third quarter, and the demand for methanol as fuel is expected to expand [32][43][51]. 4. Imports - In the second half of the year, many factors may limit the overall increase in imports. Considering the uncertainty of the regional situation, seasonal gas restrictions, and plant load - reduction expectations at the end of the year, the import volume may remain at a historical low. Under the neutral assumption of geopolitical conflict alleviation, the import volume in the second half of the year is expected to reach about 6.5 million tons; under the extreme assumption of Iran completely restricting supply, the import volume may be about 3 million tons [70]. 5. Inventory - The inland inventory is expected to remain at a historical low in the second half of the year due to the increased probability of centralized maintenance and limited new capacity release. The port inventory may decline under the pressure of the import side, and the overall inventory accumulation expectation is limited. It is predicted that the year - end social inventory will be at a historical low of 2.16 million tons [74][78]. 6. Investment Advice - Methanol prices are expected to show a relatively strong and volatile performance. On the supply side, the high operation rate of coal - to - methanol is expected to continue, but the maintenance expectation may affect futures prices. On the demand side, although the profit of MTO and traditional downstream industries is under pressure, the high operation rate of MTO and the synergistic effect of integrated plants will support the overall operation rate. Considering potential geopolitical disturbances and seasonal factors, imports are likely to remain low, and port inventory accumulation is limited. The price is expected to be supported during the third - quarter maintenance period, with the lower support around 2300 yuan and the upper limit around 2600 yuan [81].