日度策略参考-20250718

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polycrystalline Silicon, Palm Oil, Soybean (MO1), Pulp [1] - Bearish: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Cotton, Manganese Silicon, Pure Metal, Soda Ash, Corn (C01), Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, HK, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Fertilizer, PVC, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate Lithium, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Silicomanganese, Coking Coal, Coke, Rapeseed Oil, Sugar, Corn (C09), Live Pig, Energy Chemicals (including various sub - items), etc. [1] Core Views - The stock index is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to the market's increased willingness to allocate equity assets and positive market sentiment [1] - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the short - term interest rate risk prompted by the central bank restricts the upward space [1] - Gold is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term due to market uncertainties, while the strengthening dollar may suppress silver prices [1] - Copper prices have a risk of supplementary decline, aluminum and alumina prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and zinc prices are under pressure [1] - Nickel and stainless steel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - Tin prices have short - term support but a risk of a downward - moving center in the long term [1] - Some commodities like polycrystalline silicon are bullish, while others such as manganese silicon are bearish, and most commodities are in an oscillating state due to various factors including supply - demand relationships, cost support, and market sentiment [1] Summary by Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: The reaction of the recent stock index to negative news is significantly dull, with strong trading volume and sentiment. The market's willingness to allocate equity assets increases, and market sentiment is boosted by "anti - involution" and real - estate policy expectations. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1] - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest rate risks restricts the upward space [1] Precious Metals - Gold: Market uncertainties remain, and the price is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term [1] - Silver: The strengthening dollar may suppress the price [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: US inflation rebound and potential copper tariff implementation in August bring a risk of supplementary decline in copper prices [1] - Aluminum and Alumina: High aluminum prices suppress downstream demand, inventory rises, and prices oscillate weakly; alumina has a good profit, with rising production and inventory, and its price also oscillates weakly [1] - Zinc: The weakening of interest - rate cut expectations and the gradual realization of inventory - accumulation expectations put pressure on zinc prices [1] - Nickel: The interest - rate cut expectation weakens, and the price oscillates. There is a short - term opportunity to short on rallies, and long - term surplus pressure exists [1] - Stainless Steel: The interest - rate cut expectation falls, raw - material prices weaken, inventory increases, and attention should be paid to production and raw - material changes [1] - Tin: Short - term fundamentals are supported, but there is a risk of a downward - moving price center in the long term [1] Industrial Metals - Industrial Silicon: Supply decreases in the north and increases in the south, demand from polycrystalline silicon increases marginally but may decrease later, and market sentiment is high [1] - Polycrystalline Silicon: Bullish due to no supply reduction and high market sentiment [1] - Carbonate Lithium: Supply does not decrease, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and market sentiment is high [1] Building Materials - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Strong furnace materials provide valuation support, and prices oscillate [1] - Iron Ore: Commodity sentiment is good, but fundamentals are marginally weakening, and prices oscillate [1] - Manganese Silicon: Short - term production increases, demand is okay, supply - demand is relatively loose, and prices are under pressure [1] - Silicomanganese: Production increases slightly, supply - demand is relatively balanced, and prices oscillate [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Bullish due to expected international demand growth, an upward - adjusted reference price in Malaysia, and short - term exhaustion of negative factors [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Australian rapeseed may enter the domestic market, Sino - Canadian trade frictions continue, and domestic rapeseed inventory is low [1] - Cotton: There are trade - negotiation and weather premiums in US cotton in the short term, and macro - uncertainties are strong in the long term. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, and the weakening of crude oil may affect the sugar - production ratio [1] - Corn: The old - crop inventory is tightening, but downstream procurement is cautious. New - season corn has a good yield and lower production costs [1] - Soybean: There are expectations of increased Chinese purchases of US soybeans, and the import cost supports the price, which is expected to oscillate strongly [1] - Pulp: Affected by strong commodity sentiment and low valuation, it is expected to rise in the short term [1] - Live Pig: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: With the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation, OPEC+ is expected to increase production, and short - term consumption in Europe and the US is strong, so prices oscillate [1] - HK and BR Rubber: HK has a weakening downstream demand and strong supply - release expectations; BR rubber has cost - end support from partial device overhauls [1] - PTA and Ethylene Glycol: PTA supply contracts, but crude oil is strong, and polyester downstream load remains high; ethylene glycol has a large expected arrival volume later, but overseas supply may contract [1] - Short Fiber and Styrene: Short - fiber factories have more overhauls and low warehouse - receipt registration; styrene device load recovers, and the basis weakens [1] - Fertilizer: Domestic demand is average, but export expectations improve in the second half of the year [1] - PVC and Chlor - Alkali: PVC has a good market sentiment but faces seasonal supply pressure; chlor - alkali has a repaired comprehensive profit and more expected warehouse receipts [1] - LPG: Crude - oil support is insufficient, it is in the seasonal off - season for demand, and the price oscillates weakly [1] Shipping - Container Shipping on European Routes: It is in a pattern of stable reality and weak expectations, with the freight rate expected to peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend [1]