请回答2025系列报告（二）：美联储能保住自己的独立性吗？

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The expectation is that U.S. inflation will rebound in Q3 2025, while the economy continues to weaken[2] - The Federal Reserve's difficulty in lowering interest rates is increasing despite economic downturns[3] - The dollar index is projected to break 100 in Q2 and Q3 2025, with gold identified as a key asset below $3000 per ounce[3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - The Federal Reserve's independence has been historically challenged, particularly during the World War II and Korean War periods, leading to inflation pressures[4] - The 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord marked a significant shift, establishing the Fed's independence in monetary policy[5] - Recent attempts by President Trump to influence the Fed's independence echo past governmental pressures, raising concerns about potential market impacts[7][12] Group 3: Historical Context - The Fed's establishment in 1913 did not prevent bank failures during the Great Depression, with one-third of banks closing by 1933[4] - The Fed's role evolved post-World War II, initially supporting government financing through low interest rates, which later contributed to inflation exceeding 20%[8][17] - The appointment of William McChesney Martin as Fed Chairman in 1951 was pivotal in asserting the Fed's independence against governmental pressures[10] Group 4: Risks and Implications - If the Fed loses its independence, the U.S. could face severe market repercussions, including stock, bond, and currency declines[12] - The potential for uncontrolled inflation could arise from aggressive monetary policy changes, leading to significant asset volatility[14]