Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-07-18 08:49Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group, marking its first coverage of the company [5][7]. Core Views - The report emphasizes Alibaba's strategic focus on e-commerce and cloud services, with a clear management structure aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and market competitiveness [6][20]. - It highlights the expected recovery of growth momentum in Alibaba's core e-commerce business, driven by improved monetization strategies and a competitive edge in product offerings [36][42]. - The cloud business is positioned as a leader in the industry, benefiting from AI integration and a strong market presence, which is anticipated to drive revenue growth [53][66]. Summary by Sections 1. Strategic Focus on Cloud and E-commerce - Alibaba has transitioned from a diversified governance model to a strategic focus on core areas, particularly e-commerce and cloud services, with significant investments in AI infrastructure [14][20]. - The management structure has been streamlined to enhance focus on these two key business segments, with dedicated leadership for each [15][19]. 2. Core E-commerce Business Recovery - The e-commerce sector is experiencing a slowdown in competition, allowing Alibaba's Taobao and Tmall platforms to regain market share, achieving a GMV share of 48.4% during the 2025 618 shopping festival [39][40]. - The company is implementing strategies such as commission rebates and AI enhancements to support merchant growth and improve user engagement [46][48]. 3. Cloud Business Leadership - Alibaba Cloud maintains a leading position in the public cloud market, with a market share of approximately 25% in both IaaS and PaaS segments [62][65]. - The cloud division is expected to benefit from increased demand for AI services, with revenue growth projected at 23.1% to 25.0% from FY2026 to FY2028 [8][30]. 4. Financial Projections - The report forecasts Alibaba's revenue and net profit growth, with expected revenues of RMB 1,011,541.9 million in 2026 and net profits of RMB 145,092.4 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 11.5% [5][6]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025 are 13, 12, and 11 for the following years, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers in the e-commerce and cloud sectors [7][8].