集运日报：以官员称取得重大进展，远月小幅回撤，近月保持基差修复，今日若回调可考虑加仓。-20250718

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game in the shipping market is challenging, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [4]. - The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers can consider adding positions if the price continues to pull back, and short - selling lightly above 1950 for the EC2512 contract. In the long - term, it is advisable to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [5]. 3. Summary by Content Shipping Indexes - On July 14, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2421.94 points, up 7.3% from the previous period, and for the US West route was 1266.59 points, down 18.7% [3]. - On July 11, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1218.03 points, down 3.19% from the previous period; the European route was 1435.21 points, down 0.50%, and the US West route was 1186.59 points, up 0.85% [3]. - On July 11, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1733.29 points, down 30.20 points from the previous period; the European route price was 2099 USD/TEU, down 0.10%, and the US West route was 2194 USD/FEU, up 5.03% [3]. - On July 11, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1313.70 points, down 2.2% from the previous period; the European route was 1726.41 points, up 1.9%, and the US West route was 1027.49 points, down 5.2% [3]. Economic Data - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI was 49.4, service PMI was 50, and composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [3]. - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May [3]. - US June Markit manufacturing PMI was 52, service PMI was 53.1, and composite PMI was 52.8 [3]. Market Situation - Trump's additional tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, have increased the difficulty of the game in the shipping market. Some shipping companies have announced price increases. The tariff negotiation date has been postponed to August 1. The spot market price range is set, with a slight price increase to test the market, and the market has rebounded slightly [4]. - On July 17, the main contract 2510 closed at 1581.3, down 4.28%, with a trading volume of 65,600 lots and an open interest of 50,000 lots, a decrease of 453 lots from the previous day [4]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are recommended to go long lightly below 1300 for the 2510 contract and add positions if it continues to pull back today. Consider short - selling lightly above 1950 for the EC2512 contract [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [5]. Other Information - On July 16, the new round of cease - fire negotiations in Gaza made significant progress. Israel submitted a new withdrawal plan [6]. - In the first quarter of this year, global goods trade increased by 3.6% quarter - on - quarter and 5.3% year - on - year. The growth was mainly due to the expected tariff increase in the US, which led to a significant increase in North American imports [6]. - The US tariff policy has brought uncertainty to the operation of Hamburg Port [6]