申银万国期货首席点评：地产发展新模式，重视城市工作会议

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US retail sales have rebounded across various sectors, which may alleviate some concerns about the decline in consumer spending. The confidence of Americans in the economy and their financial situation has recently improved [1]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasizes accelerating the construction of a new real - estate development model and promoting urban renewal [1]. - In the short term, the steel price is expected to continue its oscillatory and slightly upward trend due to factors such as cost increases and policy expectations [2]. - In the medium - to - long - term, A - shares are considered to have high investment value, with different indices having different characteristics and potential returns [3]. - The freight rate of European container shipping lines is in a state of oscillation, and the subsequent upward space may depend on the August freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Main News - International News: The US House of Representatives passed the "Genius Act" for significant legislative reforms in cryptocurrency regulation, which will be submitted to President Trump for signing [6]. - Domestic News: Central state - owned enterprises' economic operations were generally stable from January to June, with a value - added of 5.2 trillion yuan. They are expected to shift to innovation - driven growth [7]. - Industry News: From 2020 to 2024, the industrialization rate of enterprise invention patents increased from 44.9% to 53.3% [8]. b. Outer - Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and other indices showed varying degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the S&P 500 rose 0.54%, and the European STOXX 50 rose 0.96% [9]. c. Morning Comment on Key Varieties - Financial: - Stock Index: The US three major indices and the previous trading - day's stock index rose. The A - share market has high investment value in the medium - to - long - term, with different indices having different characteristics [3][11]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank's monetary policy supports bond prices, but market risk preferences may increase bond price volatility [12]. - Energy and Chemicals: - Crude Oil: SC crude oil rose 2.04% at night. US oil demand and inventory data showed certain trends, and OPEC predicted an improvement in the global economy in the second half of the year [13]. - Methanol: Methanol fell 0.13%. The start - up load of domestic methanol plants decreased, inventory increased, and it was expected to be bullish in the short term [14][15]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefins were in a weak consolidation state. The market is in a consumption off - season, and the price is affected by cost and market sentiment [16]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded. Both are in the inventory digestion stage, and the subsequent focus is on the inventory digestion process [17]. - Metals: - Precious Metals: Gold and silver continued to oscillate. Good economic data in the US cooled the expectation of early interest - rate cuts, and the long - term driving force of gold still exists [18]. - Copper: The copper price rose at night. The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to factors such as processing fees and downstream demand [19]. - Zinc: The zinc price rose at night. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and the zinc price may fluctuate widely [20][21]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply of lithium carbonate may be adjusted, demand is growing, and inventory has increased. The price may oscillate [22]. - Black Metals: - Iron Ore: The demand for iron ore is supported, and the supply may increase in the second half of the year. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory and slightly upward [23]. - Steel: The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant. The short - term steel price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly upward [2][24]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The production of coking coal has recovered, and the market is in a positive feedback state. The focus is on policy expectations [25]. - Agricultural Products: - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The price of soybean and rapeseed meal was oscillatory and slightly upward at night. Trade agreements and export sales boosted the market, and the domestic supply is abundant [26][27]. - Oils and Fats: Oils and fats were strong at night. The MPOB report was neutral to bearish, but the demand for palm oil is strong, and the overall trend is expected to be oscillatory [28]. - Shipping Index: - European Container Shipping Lines: The EC index was oscillatory. The 10 - contract fell 4.28%. The market is still speculating on the peak - season freight rate space, and attention should be paid to the August freight rates [4][29].