食品饮料行业6月月报：食饮行情回落，保健品表现突出-20250718

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "in line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [56]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline in June 2025, with a total drop of 4.54% in the sector's component range, while health products stood out with a 6.53% increase [7][8]. - The overall performance of the food and beverage sector in the first half of 2025 was a cumulative decline of 3.51%, underperforming the market index, with traditional sectors like liquor and condiments dragging down the overall performance [12][13]. - Investment in the food and beverage manufacturing industry has continued to grow at a high level, significantly outpacing the growth of social investment [27]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance of the Food and Beverage Sector - In June 2025, the food and beverage sector's trading volume decreased to 31.189 billion shares, down 38.62 billion shares from May [7][8]. - All sub-sectors except health products saw declines, with significant drops in condiments and other alcoholic beverages at 8.23% and 5.35%, respectively [8][12]. 2. Valuation of the Food and Beverage Sector - As of June 30, 2025, the valuation of the food and beverage sector was 20.85 times, down from 22.13 times the previous month, marking a historical low over the past decade [15]. - The valuation of liquor was particularly low at 17.94 times, while health products and snacks had relatively higher valuations of 61.51 and 38.62 times, respectively [15]. 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Food and Beverage Sector - In the first half of 2025, 43.31% of food and beverage stocks recorded gains, with notable performance in snack foods, dairy products, and health products [22]. - By June 2025, the proportion of rising stocks decreased to 31.5%, with health products, dairy, and prepared dishes showing strong performance [22]. 4. Investment Trends and Domestic Output - The fixed asset investment in the food and beverage manufacturing sector continued to grow, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 16.0% as of June 2025 [27]. - Domestic production of various consumer goods, including wine and beer, continued to show a contraction trend, while fresh and frozen meat production turned positive [31][32]. 5. Import Trends - The import volumes of corn and wheat saw significant declines, with corn imports down nearly 100% year-on-year [35]. - However, imports of high-end dairy products like cream and buttermilk showed substantial growth, indicating a shift in consumer demand [37]. 6. Price Trends - Prices for raw milk showed signs of stabilization, while prices for pork and chicken continued to decline [39][42]. - The price of soybean oil increased by 4.18% year-on-year, reflecting a mixed trend in commodity prices within the sector [41]. 7. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in soft drinks, health products, beer, and snacks, highlighting the resilience of the snack industry during economic downturns [52][53].