黑色金属早报-20250718

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of black metals including steel, coking coal and coke, iron ore, and ferroalloys. It points out that steel prices may maintain a high - level range - bound trend, coking coal and coke markets have increased speculation and potential price increases but with uncertain sustainability, iron ore prices are expected to be oscillating upward, and ferroalloys should be traded within a range [4][10][15][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Related Information: In 2025 from January to May, Hebei's iron and crude steel production decreased by 2.3% and 1.3% respectively year - on - year, while the industry's profit was higher than that of 2024. Shanghai's rebar price was 3220 yuan (+20), and Shanghai's hot - rolled coil price was 3320 yuan (+30) [3]. - Logic Analysis: The black sector was strong at night. Steel exports remained high, but downstream construction site funds decreased, leading to a decline in rebar demand. With the convergence of basis, there is pressure on black sector prices. Steel prices may lack driving forces and maintain a range - bound trend [4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should expect steel to maintain a high - level range - bound trend; for arbitrage, consider 10 - 1 positive spreads at low levels; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [5][6][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - Related Information: The average national profit per ton of coke was - 43 yuan/ton. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, and the daily hot - metal output was 242.44 tons. The coke and coking coal warehouse - receipt prices were provided [9]. - Logic Analysis: Hot - metal production increased, coking coal inventory decreased, and the first round of coke price increase was implemented. The increase in coking coal prices was due to speculative and restocking demand, and its sustainability needs to be observed [10]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage and options, also wait and see; for spot - futures trading, pay attention to positive spreads [13]. Iron Ore - Related Information: BHP's Q2 2025 iron ore production increased by 14.2% quarter - on - quarter. On July 17, the national main - port iron ore trading volume increased by 14.4%. The spot prices of PB powder, super - special powder, and others were provided [14]. - Logic Analysis: The iron ore price increased by 1.53% at night. The supply of mainstream mines decreased seasonally, and the demand was high. With the change in market expectations, iron ore prices are expected to be oscillating upward [15][17]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should expect an oscillating upward trend; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [18]. Ferroalloys - Related Information: A Jiangsu steel mill set the 75B ferrosilicon purchase price at 5600 yuan/ton. The prices of manganese ores in Tianjin Port were provided [19]. - Logic Analysis: Ferrosilicon prices were stable with a slight increase. Supply was low, demand was supported, and costs were mixed. Manganese - silicon prices were stable, with expected production increase and supported by manganese ore prices. Both should be traded within a range [19]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading may be short - term oscillating upward but not recommended for chasing up; for arbitrage, go long on ferrosilicon and short on manganese - silicon, and consider positive spreads at low basis; for options, sell straddle option combinations at high prices [22].