美国关税对中国铝消费影响几何

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January - May 2025, China's cumulative net exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 760,000 tons, remaining flat year - on - year, with positive year - on - year growth from January to April. The good performance of net export data mainly stems from the Shanghai - London ratio limiting imports rather than outstanding export data [3][43]. - In 2024, direct exports to the US accounted for 3.7% of the total export volume. Assuming the extreme scenario of re - export trade, the US's indirect imports from China accounted for 7.8%. Thus, the US's maximum dependence on Chinese aluminum products could reach 11.5% [4][19][43]. - If the re - export trade of Chinese aluminum products to the US is completely restricted, based on 2025 data, direct exports to the US would decline by 1.8%, and the consumption of aluminum elements in China would only decline by 0.2% [5][24][43]. - Regarding the 24% tariff window on China, starting from May 14th, if goods arrive in the US and clear customs before August 11th, they can be exempted from the 24% tariff. Assuming the fastest clearance time of 15 days, China's rush to export can last until the end of July [5][40][45]. - There is no need to overly focus on the US's impact on China's consumption. Even with the pre - consumption caused by the rush to export, attention should be paid to the consumption resilience of other developed regions and the consumption growth of third - world countries [6][27][45]. - The pre - consumption caused by the rush to export may lead to a decline in later consumption, but the steepness of the decline may be less than expected. In the context of limited supply, as long as the year - on - year consumption of aluminum increases, the overall positive trend remains unchanged [6][45] Summary by Directory Export Data Analysis - From January to May 2025, China's cumulative net exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 760,000 tons, remaining flat year - on - year, with positive year - on - year growth from January to April. This was mainly due to the decrease in net imports of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy affected by the Shanghai - London ratio. From January to May, the cumulative net exports of aluminum products were 2.12 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6%. The cancellation of export tax rebates for Chinese aluminum products since November 2024 had a substantial impact on exports. However, the monthly decline in net exports of aluminum products in the first half of the year narrowed, which was related to the rush to export during the tariff window. Due to the additional tariffs imposed by the US on steel and aluminum imports, the actual export was more difficult, and the rush to export was mainly in the form of end - products [12]. US's Direct and Indirect Dependence on Chinese Aluminum Products - Using sample data from 2021 - 2024, which accounted for about 24% of the total export volume, it was estimated that in 2024, direct exports to the US accounted for 3.7% of the total export volume, and indirect imports from China accounted for 7.8% under the extreme re - export scenario, with a maximum dependence of 11.5%. If the US imposes tariffs globally, the impact on China's aluminum export consumption is limited under the condition that US consumption does not decline. The biggest impact comes from the re - inflation problem caused by tariffs. Chinese aluminum products can be compensated through re - export trade. From January to May 2025, China's total exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 1.67 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.2% (130,000 tons), mainly due to the cancellation of export tax rebates. The direct export to the US in 2024 was 61,000 tons, while from January to May 2025, it was only 11,000 tons, and the proportion of direct exports to the US dropped to 1.9%. The direct impact of tariffs on exports to the US was only 1.8%. Since the US import data for 2025 has not been released, the impact of re - export has not been evaluated [15][19]. - Based on the aluminum element calculation, in 2024, China's aluminum element supply was 55.75 million tons, and exports accounted for about 12% of China's aluminum consumption. If the US completely stops relying on Chinese aluminum products, the consumption of aluminum elements in China will decline by 1.4%. In reality, on the basis of stable US consumption, re - export trade is difficult to restrict, and US trade actions alone are unlikely to significantly impact China's aluminum consumption [20][24]. Attention to Third - World Consumption Growth after Tariff - Affected Rush to Export - According to customs data, from January to June, China's cumulative exports of automobiles (including chassis) reached 3.473 million units, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 18.6%. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the cumulative exports of automobiles from January to June were 3.078 million units, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.3%. Both data sources show a monthly growth trend in exports, and the monthly exports of components also show a recovery trend [27]. - There is no need to overly focus on the US's impact on China's consumption. The export price of Yiwu small commodities remains high, and although the US price in the container shipping price index has dropped significantly, the comprehensive price index is still good. Therefore, attention should be paid to the consumption resilience of other developed regions and the consumption growth of third - world countries. From January to May, China's cumulative exports of wire and cable were 1.23 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14.5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to rise, showing a continuous growth trend in recent years. The rapid development of developing countries will drive the export and consumption of China's infrastructure products [27]. Rush - to - Export Time Point under US Tariff Window - Since January 20, 2025, when Trump officially took office as the US President, the tariff war began. With the implementation of tariff executive orders such as those related to fentanyl, the US imposed a maximum tariff of 145% on Chinese goods. After the Geneva negotiations on May 12th, 91% of the reciprocal tariffs were cancelled, and the 24% tariff on China was suspended for 90 days, reducing the tariff on Chinese goods exported to the US to 30%. However, for aluminum products, due to the US's consecutive increases in steel and aluminum tariffs, even after the Geneva talks, Chinese aluminum products still face a high tariff of 104% when exported to the US [40]. - Starting from May 14th, if goods arrive in the US and clear customs before August 11th, they can be exempted from the 24% tariff. Considering the fastest shipping time from China's coastal areas to the US West Coast (about 12 days) and the estimated fastest clearance time of 15 days, China's rush to export can last until the end of July [40]. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, emphasizing the export situation of Chinese aluminum products, the US's dependence on Chinese aluminum products, the impact of tariff policies, the rush - to - export time point, and the focus on consumption in other regions [43][45].