Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-18 10:15Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall economic data is positive, which drives the stock market to rise. The A - share major indexes and stock index futures all increased this week, with small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The bond market is under pressure due to the strong performance of the equity market, but the long - term bullish foundation of the bond market remains intact considering the weak economic fundamentals, balanced and loose capital, and low inflation [6]. - The U.S. dollar may rebound in the short - term but is likely to remain weak in the medium - term due to factors such as tariff - related inflation risks, profit compression of enterprises, and structural contradictions. The recovery momentum of the eurozone and Japan is different, and trade frictions have affected market confidence [10]. - China's economic growth in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, with manufacturing and domestic demand driving the economy. Fixed - asset investment is stable, but the real estate market needs further improvement [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - Stock: The A - share major indexes and four stock index futures all increased this week, with small and medium - cap stocks stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks. The release of positive economic data promoted the rise of the stock market. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. - Bond: This week, the bond futures showed a pattern of short - term strength and long - term weakness. The equity market's strength suppressed the bond market sentiment, but the long - term bullish foundation of the bond market remains. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. - Commodity: The commodity market may strengthen further due to factors such as the GDP growth meeting expectations and the approaching Politburo meeting. The allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [6]. - Foreign Exchange: The U.S. dollar is in a volatile and slightly stronger trend, while the euro and the euro - dollar futures decreased. The short - term pressure on the euro and yen is affected by the U.S. dollar's rebound. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - Domestic: China's macro - policies have achieved results, and the economic growth in the first half of the year exceeded expectations. The Ministry of Finance issued a notice to guide long - term and stable investment of insurance funds, which is beneficial to the capital market [11][14]. - International: Trump announced tariffs on Canadian goods, and the U.S. and Indonesia reached a tariff agreement. The EU prepared to impose counter - tariffs on U.S. goods, and the Fed's "Beige Book" showed a slightly pessimistic economic outlook [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - China: In June, the export and import rates improved, the M1 and M2 money supply increased, the second - quarter GDP growth rate was 5.2%, and the industrial added value increased by 6.8%. However, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment and social consumption decreased [17]. - U.S.: In June, the CPI met expectations, the PPI decreased, and the initial jobless claims in the week ending July 12 were lower than expected [17]. - EU: In May, the industrial output increased, and the June CPI remained stable [17]. - UK: In June, the retail price index increased, and the unemployment rate slightly rose [17]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data such as China's one - year loan prime rate, U.S. existing home sales, eurozone central bank deposit rate, and UK consumer confidence index will be released [82]. 3.5 Central Bank's Open Market Operations This week, the central bank conducted 172.68 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 52.57 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net injection of 120.11 billion yuan [19].