股债交易政策预期偏暖

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading of positive policy expectations in the stock and bond markets continues. In the stock index futures market, the trading of positive policy expectations persists, and it is recommended to hold long positions in IM before the Politburo meeting in July. In the stock index options market, it is advisable to mainly adopt a far - month covered call strategy for defense. In the treasury bond futures market, the yield curve continues to steepen, and in the medium - term, the odds of steepening the curve are relatively high [1][2][6][7][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - View: The trading of positive policy expectations continues. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM for the current month changed by 5.51 points, 7.44 points, 10.53 points, and 18.99 points respectively compared to the previous trading day; the inter - period spreads (current month - next month) changed by - 5.6 points, 0 points, - 5.2 points, and - 0.6 points respectively; and the positions changed by 7308 lots, 3275 lots, 188 lots, and 5351 lots respectively. - Logic: On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index strengthened with increased trading volume reaching 1.5 trillion yuan. After the State Council Executive Meeting, the "anti - involution" theme continued to play out, and commodity prices of related and indirect varieties rebounded. Financial funds focused more on the expectation of policy intensification. The expansion of domestic demand was also a policy focus, leading to speculation in the consumer sector. The market sentiment was positive, with offensive sectors leading the rise and defensive sectors leading the decline. Since the expectation of policy intensification is difficult to be falsified, it is recommended to hold long positions in IM. - Operation Suggestion: Allocate long positions in IM [6]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - View: Mainly adopt a far - month covered call strategy for defense. - Logic: The equity index oscillated and strengthened. The ChiNext Index rose 1.75%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.14%. The trading volume of each option variety was relatively stable. The implied volatility of far - month options continued to decline. Although selling far - month call options showed floating losses, they still had relatively high absolute returns compared to the index increase. It can be inferred that the market mainly traded far - month call option selling. - Operation Suggestion: Adopt a covered call strategy [7]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - View: The yield curve continues to steepen. The trading volume and positions of T, TF, TS, and TL for the current quarter changed, and the inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads, and basis also had corresponding changes. The central bank conducted 4505 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 900 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing. - Logic: On Thursday, most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.02%, the 10 - year main contract up 0.02%, the 5 - year main contract up 0.02%, and the 2 - year main contract up 0.01%. The central bank's large - scale net injection of 3605 billion yuan in the open market was beneficial to the short - end of the bond market, while the rise of the equity market and high risk appetite were negative for the long - end of the bond market, causing the curve to steepen. In the short - term, the bond market may remain volatile. After the tax period, the loosening of the capital side will support the short - end, while the long - end may be cautious due to improved risk appetite and government bond supply. The Politburo meeting at the end of the month may also affect the long - end. - Operation Suggestion: Trend strategy: Maintain a volatile outlook. Hedging strategy: Pay attention to short - side hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: Appropriately pay attention to the widening of the basis. Curve strategy: The odds of steepening the curve are higher in the medium - term [7][8][9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - China's export amount year - on - year in June was 5.8% (previous value 4.8%, forecast 3.21%); new RMB loans in June were 22400 billion yuan (previous value 6200 billion yuan, forecast 18447.29 billion yuan); industrial added value year - on - year in June was 6.8% (previous value 5.8%, forecast 5.49%). The US CPI seasonally adjusted year - on - year in June was 2.7% (previous value 2.4%, forecast 2.7%) [10]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - Tariffs: US President Trump said on July 16 that the US might implement the tariff rate on Japan as previously stated in the letter and might soon reach a trade agreement with India. The US plans to impose a 25% tariff on Japanese imports starting from August 1. - Digital Currency Products: On July 17, Huaxia Fund (Hong Kong) announced the establishment of two tokenized money market funds denominated in US dollars and RMB respectively. The Huaxia RMB Digital Currency Fund is the world's first RMB - tokenized fund. - Brokerage Technology Application: The Securities Association of China launched a special survey on the information technology work of brokerage branches to promote the standardization and efficiency improvement of information technology construction and management in branches. - EU Budget: The European Commission announced a new budget proposal from 2028 to 2034, with a total amount of 2 trillion euros, a significant increase compared to the current 1.21 trillion euros. Most of the funds will come from EU member states, and the European Commission proposed several fundraising plans, which have been questioned by multiple member states [10][11][12].