Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-18 10:21Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The international economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic, with a slight decline in manufacturing activity and cautious corporate hiring The domestic government is taking measures to strengthen the domestic market cycle and boost consumption [4] - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation where supply increases slightly and demand is temporarily weak, with industrial inventories at a medium - low level Overall, Shanghai copper may face pressure [4] - It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [4] Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The Shanghai copper main contract oscillated at a low level on the weekly chart, with a weekly change of - 0.03% and an amplitude of 1.13%, closing at 78,410 yuan/ton [4] - Fundamentals: Internationally, the economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic Domestically, policies aim to boost the domestic market cycle In the mining end, the copper concentrate TC spot index rebounded slightly but remained in negative territory, and port inventories increased slightly Supply may increase steadily due to sufficient raw materials and good by - product prices Demand was affected by the seasonal off - season, with lower downstream processing enterprise operations and orders, and cautious purchasing The domestic social inventory increased slightly but remained at a medium - low level [4] 2. Spot and Futures Market - Futures Contracts: As of July 18, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract had a basis of 250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from last week The contract price was 78,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from last week, and the open interest was 145,430 lots, a decrease of 33,252 lots from last week [9] - Spot Prices: As of July 18, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,660 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 665 yuan/ton The main contract's inter - month spread was - 40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 270 yuan/ton from last week [12] - Premiums and Positions: As of the latest data, the Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF average premium was 65 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from last week The net short position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai copper was 1,352 lots, an increase of 255 lots from last week [21] - Options Market: As of July 18, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract fell below the 50th percentile of historical volatility The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 0.6265, an increase of 0.0238 from last week [26] 3. Upstream Situation - Mining Quotes and Processing Fees: As of the latest data, the copper concentrate quote in the main mining area (Jiangxi) was 68,910 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton from last week The southern rough copper processing fee was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [29] - Imports and Price Spreads: As of May 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.3952 million tons, a decrease of 509,800 tons from April, a decline of 17.55% but a year - on - year increase of 6.59% As of the latest data, the refined - scrap copper price spread (tax - included) was 1,130.31 yuan/ton, an increase of 107.31 yuan/ton from last week [34] - Global Production and Inventories: As of April 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.909 million tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons from March, a decline of 3% The global capacity utilization rate was 79.2%, unchanged from March The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 489,000 tons, an increase of 49,000 tons from the previous period [39] 4. Industry Situation - Supply - Refined Copper Production: As of June 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.302 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from May, an increase of 3.83% and a year - on - year increase of 15.43% As of April 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper was 2.365 million tons, a decrease of 55,000 tons from March, a decline of 2.27% The global capacity utilization rate was 82.3%, an increase of 0.3% from March [42] - Supply - Refined Copper Imports: As of May 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 292,694.313 tons, a decrease of 7,487.63 tons from April, a decline of 2.49% and a year - on - year decline of 15.64% As of the latest data, the import profit and loss was - 251.54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 560.09 yuan/ton from last week [49][50] - Supply - Social Inventories: As of the latest data, the LME total inventory increased by 12,525 tons from last week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 5,360 tons from last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 14,932 tons from last week The total social inventory was 144,400 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons from last week [53] 5. Downstream and Application - Demand - Copper Product Output and Imports: As of June 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.2145 million tons, an increase of 118,500 tons from May, an increase of 5.65% The monthly import volume of copper products was 460,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from May, an increase of 6.98% and a year - on - year increase of 4.55% [58] - Application - Power Grid Investment and Appliance Production: As of May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 0.39% and 19.8% respectively As of June 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were 16.5%, 3%, 4.8%, 18.9%, and - 11.1% respectively [64] - Application - Real Estate and Integrated Circuit Production: As of June 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment completion was 4.665756 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decline of 11.2% and a month - on - month increase of 28.77% The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 239,469,611,000 pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.7% and a month - on - month increase of 23.78% [70] 6. Overall Situation - Global Supply - Demand: According to ICSG statistics, as of April 2025, the global refined copper supply had a monthly shortage of 50,000 tons According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance as of April 2025 was 193,600 tons [75]