瑞达期货纯碱玻璃市场周报-20250718

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures prices of soda ash and glass both declined. Soda ash futures showed a volatile trend driven by market sentiment, and the subsequent fundamentals remained weak. Glass is expected to achieve a fundamental reversal first. Next week, after the end of the meeting expectations, it is expected to emerge from the trough first. [6] - For soda ash, the supply is still abundant, the demand is expected to hover at the bottom, and the price will continue to be under pressure. For glass, although the current real - estate situation is not optimistic, the industry's overall profit has improved, and the subsequent resumption of production efforts are expected to increase. [6] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: Soda ash futures fell 0.08% this week, showing a volatile trend. Glass futures fell 0.46%, with a similar trend to soda ash. Glass is expected to achieve a fundamental reversal first. [6] - Market Outlook: For soda ash, supply is abundant, demand will hover at the bottom, and prices will be under pressure. For glass, supply is at a low level, profit has improved, and resumption of production efforts may increase. However, the real - estate situation is not optimistic, and downstream demand is weak. [6] - Strategy Suggestions: For the SA2509 contract, short - term trading is recommended in the range of 1150 - 1280, with stop - loss in the range of 1130 - 1300. For the FG2509 contract, trading in the range of 1020 - 1150 is recommended, with stop - loss in the range of 980 - 1180. [6] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: This week, soda ash and glass futures prices both closed down. [8] - Spot Prices: Soda ash spot prices fell, and the basis continued to weaken. Glass spot prices also fell, but the basis strengthened. [13][18] - Price Spread: The soda ash - glass price spread continued to strengthen this week and is expected to weaken next week. [24] 3. Industry Chain Analysis - Production and Supply: The domestic soda ash operating rate and production increased this week, putting pressure on prices. One glass production line was cold - repaired, and overall production remained unchanged. [27][40] - Profit: The profits of domestic soda ash and glass enterprises both increased this week, showing signs of recovery. [33] - Photovoltaic Glass: The operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and daily melting volume of domestic photovoltaic glass all declined this week and are expected to continue to fall next week. [44] - Inventory: Domestic soda ash enterprise inventories increased due to insufficient demand, while glass enterprise inventories decreased, and the overall destocking speed was stable. [48] - Downstream Orders: Domestic glass downstream deep - processing orders declined slightly and were at a historical low. [54]