Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil): Bullish [1][3][4][5] - Iron ore: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [1][8][9] - Coke: Bullish [1][10][12][13] - Coking coal: Bullish [1][14][16][17] - Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon): Range-bound [1][18][20][21] Core Views of the Report - The steel market continues to be driven by production cut news and significant increases in raw material prices, with rebar showing seasonal weakness in production and demand but still expected to run strongly due to increased hot metal production and positive market sentiment; hot-rolled coil has relatively stable fundamentals and may maintain a strong trend in the short term due to macro policies and raw material price increases [1][4][5] - The iron ore market has seen a significant increase in hot metal production, with both supply and arrivals increasing, and subsequent shipments expected to rise. However, the rapid recent price increase has compressed profit margins, so it is not advisable to chase the rise, and short-term observation is recommended while considering short positions in the medium term [1][8][9] - The coke market has seen the first round of spot price increases implemented, with expectations of further increases. Market sentiment is affected by production cut news, and steel mill restocking has made the market more positive, so it may maintain a strong trend [1][12][13] - The coking coal market has seen a recent increase in domestic production, approaching last year's levels. Some mines have resumed production in July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory has decreased, spot trading has improved, and downstream restocking has boosted the market, so it may continue to run strongly in the short term [1][16][17] - The ferroalloy market has limited supply-demand contradictions. The ferromanganese market has increasing supply and decreasing demand, with cost support from manganese ore but potential cost weakening. The ferrosilicon market has both supply and demand decreasing, with lower production area electricity prices and high factory inventories, so it is expected to trade within a range [1][20][21] Summary by Variety Steel Rebar - Market situation: There are still occasional production cut news, and significant increases in raw material prices drive the steel price up. Production and apparent demand have decreased month-on-month, total inventory has increased slightly, showing obvious seasonal weakness. Hot metal production has increased significantly, driving up the expected demand for furnace materials [1][4][5] - Price range: [3150, 3190] [1] - Operation suggestion: May continue to run strongly [1][5] Hot-rolled Coil - Market situation: Production, apparent demand, and inventory changes are small, with relatively stable fundamentals and limited contradictions. The market is trading around macro policies, anti-involution, and industry production cut policies, and raw material price increases have also pushed up the steel price [1][4][5] - Price range: [3320, 3360] [1] - Operation suggestion: May maintain a strong trend in the short term [1][5] Iron Ore - Market situation: Hot metal production has increased significantly, with both supply and arrivals increasing, and subsequent shipments expected to rise. Ports and steel mills have both seen inventory accumulation. Steel mills have good profits and high production enthusiasm, and locking in profits on the futures market has driven up the iron ore price. However, the rapid recent price increase has compressed profit margins [1][8] - Price range: [785, 815] [1] - Operation suggestion: Short-term observation, consider short positions in the medium term [1][9] Coke - Market situation: The first round of spot price increases has been implemented, and there are expectations of further increases. There is a lot of production cut news in the market, which affects market sentiment. Steel mill restocking after the rapid price increase has made the market more positive [1][12] - Price range: [1520, 1550] [1] - Operation suggestion: May maintain a strong trend [1][13] Coking Coal - Market situation: Domestic production has recently increased, approaching last year's levels. Some mines have resumed production in July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory has decreased month-on-month, spot trading has improved, and market sentiment has generally improved. Downstream restocking has boosted the market [1][16] - Price range: [920, 950] [1] - Operation suggestion: May continue to run strongly in the short term [1][17] Ferroalloys Ferromanganese - Market situation: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and inventory pressure has not been significantly relieved. Manganese ore currently supports the price, but there are expectations of cost weakening due to lower electricity costs in multiple production areas and slightly lower long-term quotes from some mines. Hot metal production is at a high level, providing rigid support for ferromanganese demand [1][20] - Price range: [5700, 5890] [1] - Operation suggestion: Short-term trading is mainly sentiment-driven, and attention should be paid to the 6000 yuan/ton integer mark [1][21] Ferrosilicon - Market situation: Both supply and demand are decreasing. Production area electricity prices have decreased, further lowering the cost line. Factory inventories are still relatively high, some factories plan to resume production, and the downstream consumption off-season has arrived, increasing the difficulty of factory de-stocking [1][20] - Price range: [5390, 5575] [1] - Operation suggestion: Short-term trading is mainly sentiment-driven, and the market is expected to trade within a range [1][21]
中辉期货热卷早报-20250718
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-18 10:37