Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry Core Insights - The report addresses key issues regarding the trends in medical insurance income and expenditure for 2024, the relationship between insurance income and macroeconomic factors, and the policy drivers behind data changes [2] - The basic medical insurance coverage rate is maintained at 95% by the end of 2024, with 1.32662 billion insured individuals, a decrease of 7.27 million from the previous year [4][5] - Basic medical insurance income for 2024 is projected at 3.4913 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with employee insurance income at 2.3733 trillion yuan (up 3.5%) and resident insurance income at 1.1181 trillion yuan (up 5.8%) [21][36] - Basic medical insurance expenditure for 2024 is expected to reach 2.9764 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [36] - The report highlights significant disparities in the surplus rates of resident medical insurance across provinces, with 17 provinces showing positive rates and 14 negative [2] Summary by Sections 1. Medical Insurance Coverage - By the end of 2024, the basic medical insurance coverage rate is solidified at 95%, with 1.32662 billion insured individuals [4][5] - The structure of insured individuals shows an increase in employee insurance participants while resident insurance participants have decreased [7] 2. Income and Expenditure Trends - Basic medical insurance income for 2024 is projected at 3.4913 trillion yuan, with a 4.2% increase year-on-year [21] - Employee insurance income is expected to be 2.3733 trillion yuan, growing by 3.5%, while resident insurance income is anticipated to be 1.1181 trillion yuan, increasing by 5.8% [21] - Basic medical insurance expenditure is projected at 2.9764 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [36] 3. Provincial Analysis - The report notes significant differences in the surplus rates of resident medical insurance across 31 provincial-level units, with 17 showing positive rates and 14 negative [2] 4. Fund Operation Overview - From January to May 2025, the medical insurance fund's operation is reported to be stable, with income of 1.2295 trillion yuan (up 5.9%) and expenditure of 944.3 billion yuan (up 1.2%) [69]
医药行业深度报告:2024年基本医保收支平稳,结构调整和扩覆盖继续推进
Guohai Securities·2025-07-18 11:33