Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2) Core View of the Report In June, domestic financial data showed marginal improvement in real - sector financing demand under policy stimulus. The year - on - year decrease in medium - and long - term corporate loans ended, and there was a slight increase in short - term and medium - and long - term household loans. National subsidies and policy - based financial instruments may drive continuous credit expansion. The State Council executive meeting this week mentioned policies to strengthen the domestic cycle, with boosting domestic demand and the new energy industry as current policy priorities. The US Beige Book indicated a slight increase in economic activity but high uncertainty, along with a small decline in manufacturing activity and rising cost pressure. The US CPI rose as expected in June, and the market is most expecting a rate cut in September. Without negative news, market sentiment is positive, with daily trading volume of the entire A - share market around 1.5 trillion yuan and a net inflow of margin trading balance of about 30 billion yuan this week. The broad - based indices of Shanghai and Shenzhen recovered after a decline, and all four major broad - based indices had four consecutive weekly gains. This week, except for the relatively small increase of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, the mid - to small - cap and micro - cap indices had similar increases, with the 300 - 2000 indices rising 1% - 2%. In terms of basis, the index increase slowed down this week, and the basis fluctuated little, remaining basically the same as last week. IF returned to a slight discount, and the annualized discounts of IC and IM were around 8% and 11% respectively. Except for the expired July contracts, the term structure of other contracts was basically the same as last week, and a diversified term selection strategy could still be maintained [2] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Review - Policy stimulus led to marginal improvement in real - sector financing demand in June, with changes in corporate and household loans. National subsidies and policy - based financial instruments may drive credit expansion. The State Council executive meeting focused on policies to strengthen the domestic cycle [2] - The US Beige Book showed a slight increase in economic activity, high uncertainty, a decline in manufacturing, and rising cost pressure. The US CPI rose as expected in June, and the market anticipates a September rate cut [2] - Market sentiment was positive, with daily trading volume around 1.5 trillion yuan and a net inflow of margin trading balance of about 30 billion yuan. The broad - based indices recovered after a decline, and all four major broad - based indices had four consecutive weekly gains. Mid - to small - cap and micro - cap indices had similar increases, with the 300 - 2000 indices rising 1% - 2% [2] - In terms of basis, the index increase slowed, and the basis fluctuated little, remaining basically the same as last week. IF returned to a slight discount, and the annualized discounts of IC and IM were around 8% and 11% respectively. The term structure of non - expired contracts was basically the same as last week [2] Next Week's Forecast - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen next week [4]
基差方向周度预测-20250718
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-18 11:52