能源日报-20250718

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] 2. Core Views - Crude oil prices rebounded overnight, but the upward drive from strong real - world factors weakened, and prices may be hard to break out of the volatile pattern in the short term due to trade - war risks in July [2] - The sharp rise in crude oil today drove up fuel - related futures, but the demand for fuel oil lacks a driver, and the cracking spread of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil continued to decline [3] - The supply increase resilience of asphalt remains to be observed, demand is weak but has recovery expectations, and low inventory supports prices, leading to an upward trend in prices [4] - The LPG market is in a weak pattern in summer, with supply and demand both weak in China recently, and the futures price fluctuating weakly [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - SC09 contract rose 2.57% intraday. Supply concerns increased due to production reduction in Kurdistan and EU sanctions on Russia, but the upward drive from strong real - world factors weakened, and short - term prices may stay in a volatile pattern [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The sharp rise in crude oil drove up fuel - related futures today, with similar increases in FU and LU, and the high - low sulfur price difference stopped falling. The supply of high - sulfur heavy resources is expected to increase, demand lacks a driver, and the cracking spread of both FU and LU continued to decline [3] Asphalt - Refinery production in August is expected to decline significantly compared to July. Social inventory increased slightly, factory inventory decreased significantly, and overall, supply increase resilience needs further observation, demand is weak but has recovery expectations, and low inventory supports prices [4] LPG - Middle - East production pressure persists, overseas prices fluctuate weakly, import costs decline, but PDH gross profit remains stable. Domestic supply and demand are both weak, and the futures price fluctuates weakly [5]