Group 1: Report Summary - As of July 15, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 58.89%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.09 percentage points. Non - housing project capital availability rate was 60.37%, down 0.09 percentage points week - on - week, and housing project capital availability rate was 51.68%, down 0.08 percentage points week - on - week [5] - This week, the double - coking futures continued the upward trend of last week, but the momentum slowed down. Coking coal inventory continued to decline, reducing inventory pressure and releasing price elasticity. The "anti - involution" theme led by "polysilicon" strengthened, driving the recovery of the commodity bullish atmosphere. The supply - side reform focus shifted to new energy industries, and the impact on the black series was expected to be limited. Coke enterprises replenished coking coal inventory, while steel mills were more cautious [6] Group 2: Market Focus - From July 14 - 15, the Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing, emphasizing the shift from "large - scale incremental expansion" to "stock quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" in urban development [7] - The China National Coal Association held a symposium on the coal economic operation in the first half of the year, emphasizing safety, scientific production, supply quality improvement, and market balance [7] - Coking coal production in China continued to resume, and the closure of Mongolian coal ports ended. Coking coal inventory decreased significantly, coke enterprises replenished raw materials and coke inventory continued to decline, steel mills' raw material replenishment was limited, coke production changed little, iron - water production rebounded, and a new round of coke price increase was implemented [7] Group 3: Bull - Bear Focus - Bullish factors include coke enterprises' concentrated replenishment, obvious decline in coking coal inventory, supply - side reform leading to supply contraction expectations, and the rebound of iron - water production [10] - Bearish factors include the seasonal off - season of steel, limited downstream demand, and the expected increase in Mongolian coal imports after the port closure ended [10] Group 4: Data Analysis - The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.07%, up 0.55% from last week, and the daily average clean coal output was 77.04 tons, an increase of 0.54 tons. The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 62.85%, up 0.53% from last week, and the daily output was 53.375 tons, an increase of 0.79 tons. The three major ports resumed customs clearance on July 16, but the customs clearance was expected to remain low until July 21 due to the Naadam Festival in Mongolia [13] - As of the week of July 18, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 339.07 tons, a decrease of 38.11 tons from last week; the clean coal inventory of 110 sample coal washing plants was 191.54 tons, a decrease of 5.53 tons; and the port inventory was 321.5 tons, a decrease of 0.14 tons [16] - As of July 18, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 929.11 tons, an increase of 36.76 tons, and the inventory - available days were 10.88 days, an increase of 0.41 days. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 87.55 tons, a decrease of 5.53 tons [19] - As of July 18, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 791.1 tons, an increase of 8.17 tons, and the inventory - available days were 12.63 days, an increase of 0.15 days. The coke inventory was 638.99 tons, an increase of 1.19 tons, and the available days were 11.46 days, a decrease of 0.18 days [23] - As of July 18, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 73.01%, an increase of 0.14% from the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 64.21 tons, an increase of 0.13 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 86.84%, a decrease of 0.18% from the previous period, and the daily coke output was 47.09 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons [25] - As of the week of July 18, China's coke consumption was 109.1 tons, an increase of 1.19 tons. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel enterprises was 242.44 tons, an increase of 2.63 tons, and the blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, an increase of 0.31% from last week [27] - As of the week of July 18, the average loss per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 43 yuan/ton, which was improved compared with last week. On July 17, the mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong raised the coke purchase price, with dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton and wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton [29] - The spot and futures prices of double - coking rose in resonance [31] Group 5: Market Outlook - Coking coal inventory continued to decline, reducing inventory pressure and releasing price elasticity. The "anti - involution" theme led by "polysilicon" strengthened, driving the recovery of the commodity bullish atmosphere. The impact of supply - side reform on the black series was expected to be limited. The driving force for price increase was expected to slow down as supply and demand re - balanced. In the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of Mongolian coal imports on prices after the port re - opened [34] - A new round of coke price increase was implemented. With the support of coking coal costs, the game between steel and coke enterprises intensified, and there was still an expectation of further price increases. The coke futures followed the coking coal futures [37]
焦煤焦炭周度报告-20250718
Zhong Hang Qi Huo·2025-07-18 12:38