兴业期货日度策略-20250718

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view is that the "anti - involution" expectation is positive, and industrial products are generally strong. The A - share market is showing strength, while the bond market is in a high - level shock pattern. Different commodities have different trends and trading strategies based on their fundamentals [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Equity Index Futures - The market's long - making sentiment is strengthened, with the trading volume of margin trading funds and northbound funds increasing. Overseas institutions have raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025, and the "anti - involution" expectation continues to ferment. The index futures are expected to be volatile and strong [1]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market continues to fluctuate. The domestic economic growth is in line with expectations, and attention should be paid to policy intensity and Sino - US trade negotiations. The central bank's large - scale net injection has lowered the capital cost, and the bond market may continue to fluctuate at a high level due to the stock - bond seesaw effect [1]. Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Gold is in a high - level shock, and the gold - silver ratio is converging. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains, but it lacks short - term directional guidance. It is recommended to hold short positions of out - of - the - money put options on the 10 - contract for both gold and silver. Silver is expected to be volatile and strong [1][4]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - In the short term, the market has a strong expectation of weakening US import demand, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the tight - balance pattern remains unchanged, and the trend is upward [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina is under medium - term pressure, but the short - term market sentiment is bullish, and the downward trend may be repeated. The short - term upside for Shanghai aluminum is limited, and attention should be paid to changes in inventory and demand expectations [4]. Nickel - The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, but the current price is at a low level, and there is no new negative driver. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and it is recommended to hold short positions of call options [4]. Lithium Carbonate - An unexpected event has pushed up the lithium price, but the oversupply situation remains. The weekly output has reached a record high, and the downstream demand is weak. The subsequent price trend depends on whether there are more mines restricting production [4][6]. Silicon Energy (Polysilicon) - The industry's "anti - involution" and supply - side reform expectations support the price. The overall inventory has declined, and the future market is expected to have a wide - range shock. It is recommended to hold the previous strategy [6]. Black Metals Rebar - The spot market has warmed up, and the trading volume has increased. The cost has risen, and the futures price is expected to rise. It is recommended to hold short positions of out - of - the - money put options [6]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price has increased, and the overall market sentiment is positive. The cost has risen, and it is recommended to hold the profit - compression arbitrage strategy for the 01 - contract [6]. Iron Ore - The high - level pig iron production is the core factor. The supply - demand is relatively balanced, and the price is expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to hold short positions of out - of - the - money put options and the 9 - 1 positive spread strategy [6]. Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal - The mine - end inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the supply is tight. It is recommended to hold the long position and consider taking profits according to the inventory and production rate [8]. Coke - The steel mills' profits are good, and the coke price has increased for the first time. The futures price is expected to be strong [8]. Soda Ash and Glass Soda Ash - The daily production is high, and the demand is decreasing. The inventory has increased. It is recommended that aggressive investors hold short - term long positions in the 01 - contract and the long - glass - short - soda - ash arbitrage strategy [8]. Float Glass - The fundamentals have improved marginally. The inventory has decreased, and the "anti - involution" expectation and supply - contraction expectation support the price. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 01 - contract and the long - glass - short - soda - ash arbitrage strategy [8]. Crude Oil - The supply increase and demand peak are in a stalemate, and the oil price will continue to be highly volatile [8]. Methanol - The production has reached the lowest level this year, and the price is supported. The price fluctuation is expected to intensify in August [10]. Polyolefins - The production has increased, and the demand is decreasing. The price is expected to fall, and it is recommended to sell call options or short the futures [10]. Cotton - Before the new cotton is on the market, the supply may be tight, which supports the price. However, the downstream demand is weak, which is a negative factor [10]. Rubber - The tire enterprises' production start - up rate has increased, and the price is likely to rise, but the upward drive is uncertain due to seasonal production increase and port inventory pressure [10].