宏观策略周报：上半年GDP同比增长5.3%，经济持续复苏-20250718

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with a total value of 660,536 billion yuan, reflecting a steady economic recovery [1][12] - The report highlights that the first industry increased by 3.7%, the second industry by 5.3%, and the third industry by 5.5% [1][12] - It notes that the monetary supply (M2) increased by 8.3% year-on-year, with a total balance of 330.29 trillion yuan by the end of June [1][14] - The report emphasizes that China's exports reached a historical high, with a total value exceeding 13 trillion yuan, marking a 7.2% year-on-year increase [1][21] News Highlights - The report states that the People's Bank of China reported an increase of 12.92 trillion yuan in RMB loans in the first half of the year [1][14] - It mentions that the social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][16] - The report also discusses the decline in housing prices across major cities, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% in June for new residential properties [2][25] Market Overview - The report indicates that the domestic securities market showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.8% [3][31] - It highlights that the communication sector had the highest increase among the Shenwan first-level industries, with a rise of 7.9% [3][33] - The report suggests that macroeconomic policies have ample room for maneuvering, with expectations for a slight increase in economic growth in the second half of the year [3][4] Investment Recommendations - The report advises focusing on emerging industries driven by policy and industry trends, such as domestic AI, deep-sea technology, and humanoid robots [4][40] - It suggests paying attention to new consumption sectors that provide emotional value and self-satisfaction as consumer preferences shift [4][40] - The report highlights the international competitiveness of China's innovative pharmaceuticals, recommending investment opportunities in this sector [4][40] - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-dividend industries due to their stable returns and low valuations [4][40] - The report also recommends considering investments in precious metals like gold, copper, and rare earths due to ongoing geopolitical tensions [4][40]