南华原木产业风险管理日报：平衡之下，攻守兼备-20250718

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market situation of logs has a new balance, being both offensive and defensive [5]. - The price of lg2509 has increased, and the delivery product is 6 - meter medium A at that time, with its price rising due to the increase in import cost [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of logs is 820 - 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a historical percentile of 67.4% over 3 years [2]. Log Hedging Strategies - Inventory Management: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short lg2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 850 - 875 [2]. - Procurement Management: When the regular procurement inventory is low, to prevent rising log prices from increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy lg2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 810 - 820 [2]. Core Contradictions - The market had no obvious driving force, but a large positive line changed the situation [3]. Price - related Analysis - The price of 6 - meter medium A at that time is related to the import cost, which has increased. The current cheap spot has hedging profits for the 07 contract, not the 09 contract. The cheap spot can be delivered to the 09 contract, but the additional cost is high [4]. Factors Affecting Prices - Positive Factors: Traders have a willingness to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses, the import cost continues to rise, and the overall sentiment of commodities has improved [6]. - Negative Factors: The outflow of delivery products from the 07 contract suppresses the spot price, and the foreign shipment volume continues to increase [9]. Log Data Overview - Supply: The radiation pine import volume in May 2025 was 169 million m³, a month - on - month increase of 4 million m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [11]. - Inventory: As of July 11, 2025, the port inventory in China was 322 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1 million m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,894,000 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 32,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,115,000 m³, a week - on - week increase of 21,089 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 29.6% [11]. - Demand: As of July 11, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports was 5.88 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.81 million m³ and a year - on - year increase of 22.0%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 3.53 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37 million m³ and a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 1.85 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 million m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [11]. - Profit: As of July 18, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 82 yuan/m³, and the spruce import profit was - 42 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/m³ [11].