国债期货日报：日内反弹失败-20250718

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core View - The mid - term view is not bearish, and short - term trading should follow the stock market rhythm. The bond market currently lacks obvious catalysts and cannot break away from the influence of the stock market in the short term. Mid - line long positions should be held, while short - line long positions need to pay attention to timely profit - taking/stop - loss [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Market Review - Treasury bond futures opened lower in the morning, tried to rebound during the noon as the stock market declined, but the rebound failed in the afternoon due to the strengthening of the stock market, and all closed down. In the open market, 84.7 billion yuan matured today, and the central bank conducted 187.5 billion yuan of 7 - day pledged repurchase, with a net investment of 102.8 billion yuan [1] 2. Intraday News - The EU is reported to be drafting a tariff list on US service industries in preparation for an escalation of the trade war. The US will impose a 93.5% anti - dumping duty on graphite, a key battery material imported from China, and the actual tariff will reach 160% after adding the existing tax rate. The Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETF had a hot trading volume on its first day of listing, with the subscription scale increasing by 47.5 billion yuan [2] 3. Market Judgment - The bond market currently lacks obvious catalysts and cannot break away from the influence of the stock market in the short term. The Wind All - A Index will continue to冲击 the high point of last October next week. Since it deviates slightly from the 5 - day moving average, it may adjust slightly early next week, and treasury bonds may have some upward space. However, if the index successfully breaks through, the bond market will continue to be under pressure [3] 4. Data Overview - Contract Prices and Changes: TS2509 was at 102.434 (down 0.002 from the previous day), TF2509 at 106.005 (down 0.035), T2509 at 108.81 (down 0.065), and TL2509 at 120.53 (down 0.2) [4] - Contract Positions and Changes: TS contract positions were 123,247 hands (down 272), TF contract positions were 206,287 hands (up 1,728), T contract positions were 234,383 hands (up 303), and TL contract positions were 150,008 hands (down 1,073) [4] - Base Spreads and Changes: TS base spread (CTD) was - 0.0146 (down 0.0106), TF base spread (CTD) was - 0.014 (down 0.0074), T base spread (CTD) was 0.0204 (up 0.0008), and TL base spread (CTD) was 0.3078 (up 0.081) [4] - Trading Volumes and Changes: TS main trading volume was 22,678 hands (down 4,064), TF main trading volume was 44,183 hands (down 4,278), T main trading volume was 51,738 hands (up 6,186), and TL main trading volume was 72,268 hands (up 1,823) [4] - Repo Rates and Changes: DR001 was 1.4635% (down 0.0054), DR007 was 1.5223% (down 0.0068), and DR014 was 1.5355% (down 0.0211) [4] - Repo Trading Volumes: DR001 trading volume was 2,713.53413 billion yuan (unchanged), DR007 trading volume was 66.49888 billion yuan (unchanged), and DR014 trading volume was 5.13925 billion yuan (unchanged) [4]