国投期货农产品日报-20250718

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Hogs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★★☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The development of biodiesel can support vegetable oils in the long - term, and a strategy of buying on dips for vegetable oils is recommended. Short - term price trends of various agricultural products are affected by weather, policies, and trade news [3][4] - Supply and demand of the domestic corn market have no major contradictions currently, and attention should be paid to the phased supply in the circulation link [7] - The overall supply of the live hog industry in the later period is abundant, and prices are under downward pressure in the medium - term [8] - Egg prices have not reached the bottom of the cycle in the long - term, and the rebound strength of spot prices should be monitored [9] Summary by Category Soybean - Domestic soybeans continue to rebound. There is a risk of short - term waterlogging in some areas, and the policy procurement auction had zero transactions this week. For U.S. soybeans, there are risks of higher - than - normal temperatures and lower - than - normal precipitation in the central and southern production areas in the next 6 - 10 days [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - As of July 15, about 7% of U.S. soybean production areas were affected by drought. The overall price of U.S. agricultural products rose, driving the continuous rebound of Dalian soybean meal. In China, the spot price of soybean meal increased, the oil mill operating rate remained high, and inventory continued to increase [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The palm oil contract rose strongly, and soybean oil followed. Indonesia is studying the B50 biodiesel plan, and the U.S. will reduce tariffs on Indonesian products. In the long - term, a strategy of buying on dips for vegetable oils is recommended [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed products generally rose. Canadian rapeseed futures prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The Sino - Australian rapeseed trade has limited impact on near - month supply and demand. There is still room for a short - term rebound in domestic rapeseed products [6] Corn - Dalian corn rebounded with increased positions. The auction of imported U.S. corn had a low transaction rate, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. The supply of Shandong deep - processing enterprises decreased. Dalian corn futures may continue to fluctuate at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - The live hog 09 contract rose slightly. The spot price continued to decline, and the supply was accelerating. The overall supply in the later period is abundant, and prices are under downward pressure in the medium - term [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs increased, and the futures market had intense long - short competition. Due to high production capacity, off - season contracts are under pressure, while peak - season contracts are relatively supported [9]