白糖产业风险管理日报-20250718

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has high expectations for increased sugar production in the 25/26 crushing seasons in India and Thailand, which suppresses sugar prices. However, due to the slightly slower production progress in Brazil currently and a high sugar - ethanol ratio, the expectation of a decline in Brazil's new crushing season output in the overseas market is increasing, causing price fluctuations after a sharp drop in the overseas market. The profit window for out - of - quota imports in the domestic market is open, and the domestic market is slightly stronger, but the rebound strength may be limited [4] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - Price Range Forecast: The monthly price range of sugar is predicted to be between 5700 - 5900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 4.88% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0% [3] - Inventory Management Strategies: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about sugar price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5800 - 5850 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SR509C5900) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the sugar price rises [3] - Procurement Management Strategies: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5750 - 5780 to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (SR509P5700) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 15 - 20 to collect premiums and lock in the spot sugar purchase price if the sugar price drops [3] 3.2 Core Contradictions - The high expectation of increased production in India and Thailand's 25/26 crushing seasons suppresses sugar prices, while the situation in Brazil leads to price fluctuations in the overseas market. The domestic market is slightly stronger but has limited rebound potential [4] 3.3利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - As of the end of June, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales reached 5.1406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 614,400 tons, with a sales - to - production ratio of 79.51%, a year - on - year increase of 6.29 percentage points. In June alone, sugar sales were 495,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 77,300 tons. Industrial inventory was 1.3244 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 330,800 tons [5] - The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in India (NFCSF) expects India's ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 crushing season to be between 4.8 - 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic sugar consumption from October to November 2025 [6] - China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixes [6] - As of the first half of May in the 2025/26 crushing season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region was 76.714 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.466 million tons (a 20.24% decline). The cumulative sugar production was 3.989 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17 million tons (a 22.68% decline) [6] - In May, the total import of syrup and premixes was 64,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 150,700 tons, the second - lowest in the same period in the past five years [6] - Brazil has increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% [6] - Trump said that Coca - Cola has agreed to use sugar as a beverage additive again in the United States [8] 3.4利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - In the 2024/25 crushing season, Guangxi's cumulative cane crushing volume was 48.5954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5847 million tons, but the mixed sugar production was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 283,600 tons, with a sugar production rate of 13.30%, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 percentage points [9] - Analysis agency JOB expects Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season to increase by 5% to 46 million tons [9] - Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 crushing season is expected to increase to 10.39 million tons [9] - India's monsoon has arrived 3 - 4 days earlier than usual, and the sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season is expected to recover strongly, reaching about 35 million tons [9] - In May, sugar imports were 350,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 333,100 tons, and the out - of - quota import profit window is open [9] 3.5 Sugar Market Data - Base Difference: On July 18, 2025, the base differences between different regions (Nanning, Kunming) and sugar futures contracts (SR01, SR03, etc.) showed various daily and weekly changes. For example, the Nanning - SR01 base difference was 394, with a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly decrease of 37 [10] - Futures Prices and Spreads: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices, daily and weekly price changes, and spreads between different sugar futures contracts (SR01, SR03, etc.) were presented. For example, the closing price of SR01 was 5656, with a daily increase of 0.02% and a weekly increase of 0.48% [11] - Spot Prices and Regional Spreads: On July 18, 2025, the spot prices of sugar in different regions (Nanning, Liuzhou, etc.) and the price differences between regions were shown. For example, the price in Nanning was 6050, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 10 [12] - Sugar Import Price Changes: On July 18, 2025, the quota - within and out - of - quota import prices of sugar from Brazil and Thailand, as well as the price differences between domestic regions and imported sugar, showed daily and weekly changes [13]