Report Summary - China's automobile production and sales in June reached 2.794 million and 2.904 million vehicles respectively, with year-on-year increases of 11.4% and 13.8%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million vehicles, up 26.4% and 26.7% year-on-year [5]. - The rainfall in the world's major natural rubber producing areas increased week-on-week. In the next two weeks, the overall rainfall in the Southeast Asian rubber-producing areas will increase compared to the previous period, affecting rubber tapping [5]. - Foreign institutions collectively raised their GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025. Morgan Stanley raised its forecast from 4.5% to 4.8%, Goldman Sachs from 4.6% to 4.7%, and UBS from 4% to 4.7% [5]. - From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 571,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month decrease of 5%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 11.473 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 11%. The retail sales of the new energy passenger car market were 332,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 26% and a month-on-month decrease of 4%. The penetration rate of the new energy market was 58.1%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 5.801 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 33% [5]. - The price of natural rubber raw materials is running strongly. The inventory in Qingdao area has increased slightly. The price of butadiene, the raw material for butadiene rubber, has risen slightly. The inventory of butadiene rubber factories has decreased slightly. The operating rate of tire enterprises has increased [5]. - This week, the rubber futures market showed a unilateral upward trend. The "anti - involution" theme led by "polysilicon" continued to strengthen, driving the bullish sentiment in the commodity market. The development of new energy vehicles is gradually replacing the market share of traditional fuel vehicles, and the demand for tires remains resilient. The price of glue at home and abroad has increased this week. Affected by rainy weather, rubber tapping is difficult, and the raw material price is strong, providing cost support for rubber. The inventory in Qingdao Bonded Area has changed from decreasing to increasing, and the general trade inventory continues to accumulate. The downstream tire market mainly consumes inventory, and the terminal demand is limited. The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises has increased but has not reached the level of the same period last year, and the room for improvement is limited. In general, in the short term, the rubber futures market mainly fluctuates with external macro - emotions, the internal fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and it operates strongly in a range [5]. Multi - empty Focus Bullish Factors - The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has rebounded [8]. - Weather disturbances have strengthened the cost support of natural rubber raw materials [8]. - The sentiment of "anti - involution" varieties continues [8]. Bearish Factors - The inventory is at a relatively high level [8]. Data Analysis - As of July 17, the price of fresh glue in Thailand was 54.5 Thai baht/kg, the cup lump price was 48.55 Thai baht/kg, the glue price in Yunnan, China was 13,600 yuan/ton, and the glue price in Hainan was 13,000 yuan/ton. Affected by rainy weather, rubber tapping is difficult, and the raw material price is strong, providing cost support for rubber [9]. - As of the week of July 11, the spot inventory in Qingdao Bonded Area was 78,978 tons, an increase of 201 tons; the general trade spot inventory was 557,405 tons, an increase of 3,805 tons. The inventory in Qingdao Bonded Area has changed from decreasing to increasing, and the general trade inventory continues to accumulate, with the overall inventory rising slightly [11]. - This week, the domestic butadiene market showed a strong shock, and the weekly average price increased slightly month - on - month. The downstream industry has good operating conditions, and the supply side has no obvious pressure. As of July 17, the delivery price in the central Shandong region was about 9,400 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was 9,150 - 9,200 yuan/ton. As of the week of July 18, 2025, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 349.5714 yuan/ton, and the strong raw material price affected the profits of production enterprises [13]. - As of the week of July 18, the in - factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 15,650 tons, a decrease of 850 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 6,600 tons, an increase of 330 tons from last week. Recently, the downstream inventory has been replenished, and the in - factory inventory has decreased [15]. - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was 61.98%, an increase of 0.87% from last week and an increase of 3.92% from the same period last year. The in - factory inventory available days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.85 days, an increase of 0.18 days from last week and a decrease of 5 days from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires was 68.13%, an increase of 2.34% from last week and a decrease of 11.96% from the same period last year. The in - factory inventory available days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.18 days, an increase of 0.42 days from last week and an increase of 11.33 days from the same period last year. The market mainly consumes inventory, and the terminal demand is limited. The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises has increased but has not reached the level of the same period last year, and the room for improvement is limited [17]. - As of July 17, the spread of the September "RU - NR" contract was strongly oscillating, and the spread of the September "NR - BR" contract was oscillating within a range [20]. Market Outlook - This week, the "anti - involution" theme led by "polysilicon" continued to strengthen, driving the bullish sentiment in the commodity market. - Fundamentally, the price of glue at home and abroad has increased this week. Affected by rainy weather, rubber tapping is difficult, and the raw material price is strong, providing cost support for rubber. The inventory in Qingdao Bonded Area has changed from decreasing to increasing, and the general trade inventory continues to accumulate. The downstream tire market mainly consumes inventory, and the terminal demand is limited. The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises has increased but has not reached the level of the same period last year, and the room for improvement is limited. - In general, in the short term, the rubber futures market mainly fluctuates with external macro - emotions, the internal fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and it operates strongly in a range [24].
中航期货橡胶周度报告-20250718
Zhong Hang Qi Huo·2025-07-18 12:55