Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - This week, the asphalt fundamentals showed characteristics of increasing supply and weak demand. The supply side saw a week - on - week increase in weekly output and operating rate, while the demand side had a slight increase in shipment volume. The factory inventory decreased slightly, ending the two - week inventory accumulation trend, indicating an increase in traders' willingness to purchase. However, the social inventory increased, and the current asphalt social inventory remains at a high level, with demand awaiting further improvement. - The crude oil market currently lacks obvious drivers, and short - term fluctuations are dominated by news. The EU's sanctions on Russia and the reduction of the price cap on Russian oil are bullish in the short - term sentiment, but have limited impact in the medium - to - long - term. It is expected that the oil price will continue to fluctuate strongly. - Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of asphalt is not prominent, and the futures price mainly fluctuates around crude oil. It is recommended to track geopolitical changes and pay attention to the matching degree between refinery production scheduling and the progress of terminal project construction. It is also suggested to focus on the BU2509 contract in the range of 3,580 - 3,750 yuan/ton [7][69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Abstract - Market focus includes Trump's "major statement" on Russia, OPEC maintaining the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast, and IEA raising the 2025 global crude oil supply growth forecast while lowering the demand growth forecast [6]. - Key data: As of July 16, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 32.8%, up 1 percentage point from the previous statistical period. As of July 18, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 572,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 761,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week; the social inventory of domestic asphalt was 1.319 million tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous week [7]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt include marginal improvement in supply - demand and low inventory levels; bearish factors include a cease - fire agreement between Israel and other parties and high supply levels [10]. 3.3 Macro Analysis - Tariff negotiations: The progress of US tariff negotiations is slow and uncertain. Trump said the US is close to reaching a trade agreement with India and may reach an agreement with Europe, but it's too early to say about Canada. The US - Japan tariff negotiation has no progress, and the US may maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods. The EU - US tariff negotiation has major differences, with core issues such as automobile and agricultural tariffs remaining unresolved [11]. - Firing Powell incident: Trump hopes that Fed Chairman Powell will resign, which may trigger investors' doubts about the Fed's independence and lead to the selling of the US dollar and US Treasury bonds [12]. - Fed's "Beige Book": The overall sentiment is pessimistic. All 12 regions in the US reported price increases, and enterprises generally felt the cost pressure related to tariffs. The economic outlook is "neutral to slightly pessimistic", and it is speculated that the Fed will continue to "stand still" [12]. - OPEC and IEA monthly reports: OPEC maintained the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. It also maintained the economic growth forecasts for this year and next year. IEA raised the 2025 global oil supply growth forecast from 1.8 million barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day and lowered the 2025 average oil demand growth forecast from 720,000 barrels per day to 704,000 barrels per day [13]. 3.4 Data Analysis - Supply: As of July 18, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 572,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous week. As of July 16, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 32.8%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous statistical period, with significant increases in South China and Shandong. The increase in refinery operating rate was due to a decrease in maintenance plans [14][22]. - Demand: As of July 18, the weekly shipment volume of domestic asphalt was 414,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from the previous week. The weekly shipment volume rebounded and was at a high level this year. The capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt was 14.55%, up 0.17 percentage points from the previous week [25][28]. - Import and export: In May, domestic asphalt imports were 397,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116,100 tons (41.3% increase), and a year - on - year decrease of 61,300 tons (13.37% decrease). The cumulative imports from January to April were 1.3492 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.03%. In May, domestic asphalt exports were 55,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,300 tons. The cumulative exports from January to April were 249,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 59.62% [37][44]. - Inventory: As of July 18, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 761,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,600 tons, with a large decrease in Shandong. The social inventory was 1.319 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 tons. Except for the northwest region, there was a slight inventory increase in other regions [53][60]. - Spread: As of July 18, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing and dilution was - 524.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 46.3 yuan/ton. As of July 16, the asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio was 55.41, and as of July 17, the asphalt basis was 107 yuan/ton. The asphalt cracking spread rebounded this week, mainly due to the weak operation of crude oil prices [67]. 4.后市研判 - The asphalt supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the futures price mainly fluctuates around crude oil. It is recommended to track geopolitical changes, pay attention to the matching degree between refinery production scheduling and the progress of terminal project construction, and focus on the BU2509 contract in the range of 3,580 - 3,750 yuan/ton [69].
沥青周度报告-20250718
Zhong Hang Qi Huo·2025-07-18 12:55