铜产业链周度报告-20250718

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile trend, but investors need to be wary of risks brought by subsequent tariffs [5][65]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Report Summary - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 7,000 to 221,000, reaching the lowest level since mid - April, indicating the resilience of the employment market [5]. - In June, the US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, better than expected, alleviating concerns about consumer spending contraction [5]. - The US CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than market expectations [5]. - Domestically, the GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year - on - year. In June, industrial production was strong while demand was weak. The production of refined copper in the second quarter is expected to increase [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: Domestic TC maintains a low and weak quotation; US retail sales in June are better than expected; the spot has changed from a discount to a premium [8]. - Bearish factors: The tight inventory situation in non - US regions has eased; LME copper inventory continues to rise [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Copper ore imports: In June, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.35 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 14.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. Chile's copper exports to China have rebounded [18]. - Mining end: As of the week of July 11, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 43.31 dollars/dry ton, up 0.12 dollars/dry ton from the previous week. The spot market is expected to remain stable [22]. - Electrolytic copper production: In May, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1417 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 16.33%. The production in June is expected to remain high [24]. - Waste copper imports: In May, China's waste copper imports were 185,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.53%. The supply from major countries has declined [27]. - Refined - waste price difference: As of July 17, the refined - waste price difference was around - 1,075 yuan/ton, which is conducive to refined copper consumption [31]. - Copper product production: In June, the production of refined copper rods decreased, the production of copper strips decreased, the production of copper materials increased, the production of household refrigerators increased, and the export of automobiles maintained a high growth rate [35][39][43][46][50]. - Real estate market: From January to June, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, with declines in new construction and completion areas [54]. - Copper inventory: LME copper inventory has accumulated, with the latest level at 122,150 tons. SHFE copper inventory decreased slightly to 81,462 tons in the week of July 11. COMEX inventory has continued to accumulate, reaching 241,814 tons. Domestic spot inventory increased to 144,400 tons on July 17 [58]. - Copper spot premium: On July 17, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper spot changed from a discount to a premium of about 85 yuan/ton, while the LME 0 - 3 spot discount widened to about - 58.71 dollars/ton [62]. 3.4后市研判 - The copper price will maintain a volatile trend, but risks from subsequent tariffs should be watched out for [65].