饲料养殖策略周报：生猪：供应相对缩减，猪价偏强受限-20250718

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report 2. Core Views - Pigs: Future two months are a seasonally tight supply period for pigs due to winter piglet diseases, and the July pig slaughter plan is reduced, which supports the pig market. However, the overall supply this year is relatively strong, with the national sow inventory in May at 40.42 million heads, only 0.38 million heads less than the peak in November last year, and still above the basic capacity of 39 million heads, limiting the upward movement of pig prices [2] - Eggs: Eggs are in a traditional seasonal off - season with weakening consumption demand. The high - temperature and high - humidity weather is unfavorable for egg storage, reducing channel purchasing willingness. Newly - laying hens are at a high - production stage. Although farmers have a high willingness to cull due to large losses, the supply - side capacity reduction has just begun, and the reversal point has not arrived. Egg prices have a rebound demand at low levels but are still in a bearish trend, showing a weak and volatile pattern [7] - Soybean Meal: As of the week ending July 13, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than market expectations and the previous week, and also at a relatively high level over the years. Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 169.5 million tons. The confirmed high - yield expectations in South America suppress the futures price to fluctuate weakly [9] - Corn: The spot price in the main production areas has weakened, and under the continuous decline of the futures price, traders' willingness to hold prices has weakened, and their willingness to sell at low prices has increased. Deep - processing enterprises are pressing prices for purchases. The corn inventory in the four northern ports, a barometer of inventory, has continued to decline from a historical high, and the inventory of feed and deep - processing enterprises has also decreased. Affected by the import corn auction, the spot price has loosened, and the adjustment of the futures price on the disk continues [11] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Farming Capacity - Pigs: The sow inventory is in a green area, indicating a loose capacity [17] - Eggs: The laying - hen inventory is at a historical high, with loose capacity [17] 3.2 Farming - end Demand - Pigs: The pig slaughtering start - up rate is running weakly [21] - Eggs: The downstream consumption is average [21] 3.3 Replenishment Prices - Pigs: The average price of piglets has been fluctuating weakly recently [24] - Eggs: The price of chicken chicks is high [24] 3.4 Basis - Pigs: Due to loose capacity and weak expectations, the futures price is weaker than the spot price, and the basis is oscillating at a high level [27] - Eggs: The basis shows a weak and volatile trend [27] - Soybean Meal: As the arrival of goods increases, the basis is falling [30] - Corn: The basis is running weakly [30] 3.5 Production Profits - Pigs: Pig - farming profits are weakly oscillating [33] - Eggs: Laying - hen farming profits are weakly oscillating [33] - Soybeans: The soybean crushing profit is currently running weakly [43] - Corn: The starch - corn price difference is weakly oscillating [43] 3.6 Inventory - Soybeans: With the increasing arrival of goods, soybean inventory is at a high level, and soybean meal inventory is accumulating due to the recovery of the startup rate [36] - Corn: The deep - processing inventory has slightly declined due to less arrivals and strong price - holding willingness of traders; the overall inventory of feed enterprises has also slightly decreased this week [40] 3.7 Industry Terms - Old Rice: Usually stored in reserve warehouses for a long time, it can be used for processing fuel ethanol or feed, with a relatively low price. It is a good substitute for corn in feed use, and the auction rhythm of old rice has a certain regulatory effect on the corn market price [44] - Secondary Fattening: Farmers buy healthy pigs that have reached the normal slaughter weight (usually 200 - 250 pounds), fatten them for a period to increase their weight to 350 pounds or more, and then sell them to earn the price difference. This model has become popular after African swine fever [44]