铝产业链周度报告-20250718

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current low inventory of aluminum keeps the price from significant decline, with support at the 20,000 integer level [5][57]. - The economic reality in the US remains strong, but whether the upside space can be opened requires preventive interest - rate cuts. Attention should be paid to inflation clues and tariff impacts [11]. - In China, the economy showed marginal weakness in June, and it is recommended to focus on the long - term policy framework transformation [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US initial jobless claims decreased by 7,000 to 221,000 last week, reaching the lowest level since mid - April, indicating a resilient job market. US retail sales in June rebounded strongly, with a 0.6% month - on - month increase [11]. - US CPI in June was in line with market expectations, while core CPI was lower than expected, starting to reflect the tariff's impact on the retail end [11]. - Domestically, the production capacity of the domestic electrolytic aluminum smelting industry changed little, with a slight increase in output. The demand side was affected by the seasonal consumption off - season and high aluminum prices, and the operating rate of downstream industries declined [5]. - The visible inventory of aluminum remained at a low level. As of July 17, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 471,000 tons, 12,000 tons less than on Monday [5][50]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - The overall output of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated little, and the visible inventory remained at a low level. The spot changed from a discount to a premium [8]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - The operating rate in the aluminum processing sector continued to decline, and macro - sentiment uncertainty still existed [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis 3.3.1 Domestic Ore - From January to May 2025, the domestic ore output was 25.2 million tons, with a theoretical expected increase of 3.3 million tons to 61.3 million tons for the year, only meeting about 28% of domestic alumina raw material demand [17]. 3.3.2 Ore Price - Since the beginning of this year, the import price of bauxite has been continuously lowered. In June 2025, China's aluminum ore imports were 18.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.2% [21]. 3.3.3 Alumina - The alumina price has been adjusted upwards recently. With the increase in supply, the short - term spot price is stable. The output of alumina continues to rise, and the supply surplus is expected to be strong [24]. 3.3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - In May 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The current operating capacity is about 44.15 million tons, and the subsequent increase is limited [28]. 3.3.5 Aluminum Demand - In June 2025, China's aluminum product output was 5.874 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%. From January to June, the output was 32.768 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. Domestic aluminum product exports declined year - on - year, but demand from the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle sectors increased significantly [31]. 3.3.6 Downstream Operating Rate - Affected by high aluminum prices and the deepening off - season, the average operating rate of processing enterprises decreased by 0.1% to 58.6% this week [35]. 3.3.7 Real Estate - From January to June, national real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. The construction area, new construction area, and completion area all declined [39]. 3.3.8 Automobile - In June, China's automobile exports reached 592,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 22.2%. New - energy vehicle exports were 205,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 140% [43]. 3.3.9 Inventory - Last week, LME aluminum inventory increased, and SHFE aluminum inventory also increased. As of July 17, the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 471,000 tons, 12,000 tons less than on Monday [47][50]. 3.3.10 Price Premium - On July 17, the average price of aluminum in Shanghai Wumaomao changed from a discount to a premium of 110 yuan/ton, while the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium widened [54]. 3.4后市研判 - The price of Shanghai aluminum is difficult to decline significantly under the current low - inventory situation, with support at the 20,000 integer level [57].