Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - Fundamentally, the near - term surplus pattern of pure benzene remains unchanged, but new downstream production news strengthens the expectation of improved future demand for pure benzene. Styrene ports have significantly accumulated inventory, large traders started to sell near - month goods this week, and the near - month basis has weakened rapidly. Also, there have been frequent news of styrene plant overhauls this week, disturbing market sentiment. The pure benzene and styrene futures generally showed a volatile and weakening trend [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price forecast for pure benzene is 5800 - 6400 yuan/ton, and for styrene is 6900 - 7500 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 85.8% [3] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about styrene price drops, it is recommended to short styrene futures (EB2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7250 - 7350 yuan/ton to lock in profits and compensate for production costs. Also, sell call options (EB2509C7500) with a 50% hedging ratio at 70 - 90 to collect premiums and reduce capital costs [3] - For procurement management with low regular inventory and the need to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to buy styrene futures (EB2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7050 - 7150 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance. Also, sell put options (EB2509P7100) with a 75% hedging ratio at 80 - 110 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [3] Core Contradiction Analysis - The near - term surplus of pure benzene remains, but future demand improvement is expected. Styrene port inventory has increased, large traders sold near - month goods, and the near - month basis weakened. Frequent plant overhaul news disturbed the market, and the overall trend of the two futures was volatile and weak [4] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - There was a problem with Shenghong's fluidized bed, resulting in a 30% reduction in reforming and atmospheric - vacuum distillation loads, a decrease of 10,000 tons in pure benzene output and 30,000 tons in PX output, and the planned overhaul will last until the end of the month [5] - There were market rumors this week that the POSM unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical had a malfunction, resulting in a loss of 10,000 tons of styrene, and Jieyang Petrochemical's styrene plant will start an overhaul at the end of August, expected to last for half a month [5] - The prices of coking coal and coke were strong today, providing strong cost - side support [5] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - As of July 14, 2025, the styrene inventory at Jiangsu ports was 138,500 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons or 24.22% from the previous period. Styrene inventory has significantly increased this week, large industrial traders started to sell near - month goods, and near - term liquidity has improved [6] - The styrene downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and downstream factories mainly purchase raw materials for rigid demand without the intention to stockpile [6] - The latest production schedules of three major white - goods have been significantly revised down compared to the previous period, and the terminal's consumption demand expectation for the third quarter is pessimistic [8] Basis and Spread Analysis - The daily changes in the pure benzene basis showed a weakening trend, such as the华东 - BZ03 basis changing from - 202 to - 244, a decrease of 42 [8] - The daily changes in the styrene basis also showed a weakening trend, such as the华东 - EB07 basis changing from 140 to 50, a decrease of 90 [8] - The pure benzene - styrene industrial chain spreads showed various changes, for example, the styrene spot - pure benzene spot spread increased from 1450 to 1520 yuan/ton [8] Price Data - Brent crude oil price was 69.65 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down from 70.63 dollars/barrel last week [9] - Among various pure benzene prices, the FOB Korea price was 722 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton from the previous day [9] - Among styrene prices, the EB2507 price was 7350 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous day [9] - The profits of related products showed different trends, such as the EB non - integrated profit remaining at - 51.4985 yuan/ton, and the EPS profit decreasing from 429 to 329 yuan/ton [9]
纯苯:苯乙烯风险管理日报-20250718
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-18 13:00