黑色金属日报-20250718

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/ bearish bias with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot - Rolled Coil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/ bearish bias with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★, representing a clearer bullish/ bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, showing a bullish/ bearish bias with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, implying a bullish/ bearish bias with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆★, indicating a short - term balance in the bullish/ bearish trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Silicon Ferroalloy: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term balance in the bullish/ bearish trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] Core Viewpoints - The market is still dominated by the "anti - involution" concept, and substantial policy measures are yet to be implemented. After a significant rebound, the fluctuations of relevant varieties have intensified, and the rhythm may be repeated. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [1] - The short - term trend of iron ore is expected to follow the fluctuations of finished steel products, with attention to the risk of amplified fluctuations [2] - Coke and coking coal are expected to follow the trend of steel products and may maintain an upward trend in the short term [3][5] - Silicon manganese and silicon ferroalloy follow the trend of thread steel, but their price increases are relatively weak [6][7] Summary by Category Steel - Today's steel futures rose and then fell, continuing to rebound. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel dropped significantly, production continued to decline, and inventory slightly increased. The demand for hot - rolled coils slightly rebounded, production continued to decline, and inventory slightly decreased. Iron - making molten iron production increased and remained at a high level. With low inventory, the market's negative feedback pressure is small [1] - In June, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment slowed down. Domestic demand remained weak overall, while exports remained at a relatively high level [1] Iron Ore - On the supply side, the global shipment of iron ore decreased slightly month - on - month, and the domestic arrival volume was at a high level, with a possible phased decline later. Port inventory decreased under high - throughput conditions and there was no obvious pressure to accumulate inventory in the short term [2] - On the demand side, terminal demand was weak during the off - season. Steel mills had profits and lacked the motivation for active production cuts. Iron - making molten iron production resumed this week and could remain at a relatively high level in the short term [2] Coke - The first round of price increases for coking was fully implemented, and there were still expectations of further price increases. Profits were meager, and daily coking production slightly increased after a continuous decline. Overall coke inventory slightly decreased, and the purchasing willingness of traders increased [3] Coking Coal - The output of coking coal mines slightly decreased, the spot auction market improved, transaction prices continued to rise, and terminal inventory increased. The total coking coal inventory decreased month - on - month, and production - end inventory continued to decline significantly. There was a high probability of continuous inventory reduction in the short term [5] Silicon Manganese - Due to continuous production cuts in the early stage, the inventory level decreased, but weekly production began to rebound, and the inventory reduction rate was likely to decline. In the long - term, manganese ore inventory fluctuated and increased. In the short - term, the current inventory level was low, and the price - holding intention of manganese mines increased [6] Silicon Ferroalloy - Iron - making molten iron production increased to over 242. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal decreased slightly month - on - month, and secondary demand remained stable at a high level. Overall demand was okay. Silicon ferroalloy supply continued to decline, market transaction levels were average, on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decrease, but production - end inventory began to increase, mainly due to the decrease in warehouse - receipt inventory [7]