黄金白银周度策略报告：美债收益率上行承压，金银比下行趋缓？-20250718

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, precious metals showed a pattern of gold being weak and silver being strong, mainly due to the short - term high - level callback of safe - haven demand. The market has become dull to trade - war and Middle - East geopolitical risks. In terms of monetary attributes, strong employment and inflation in the US rule out the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near term. The Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards rate cuts due to internal disagreements. In terms of commodity attributes, there is still an expected supply - demand gap for silver, and industrial demand is expected to improve. Short - term precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly. In the medium and long term, the increasing risk of economic recession may force the rate - cut logic to develop, and precious metals are expected to remain at a high level in the medium term and show a long - term upward trend [5]. - Gold jewelry consumption is restricted by high prices, but investment demand for gold bars offsets some of the impact. Central banks in emerging markets, including the People's Bank of China, are driving up gold - buying demand through their "de - dollarization" strategies. The World Silver Association expects the global silver supply - demand gap to narrow by 21% in 2025, to 117.6 million ounces (about 3658 tons) [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Risk - aversion Attribute - The trade war has entered a new stage, and there are continuous geopolitical changes in the Middle East, but the market has become dull to these two types of safe - haven factors [5]. - Trump once threatened to fire Powell but later clarified that he would "take no action for the time being", easing market concerns [5]. 2. Monetary Attribute - The Fed's Beige Book shows that US economic activity has increased, but tariffs have brought price pressure, making the outlook pessimistic. US employment and inflation growth are still strong, eliminating the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near term. The Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards rate cuts due to internal disagreements. The market expects the next Fed rate cut to be postponed to September, and the total rate - cut space in 2025 is expected to drop to about 50 basis points. The US 6 - month CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month [2][5]. - A review of the Fed's monetary policy path from 2024 - 2025 shows different stances on rate cuts at different times, including rate cuts of different magnitudes, concerns about inflation and employment, and changes in the expected number of rate cuts [10][11]. 3. Commodity Attribute - Gold jewelry consumption is restricted by high prices, but investment demand for gold bars offsets some of the impact. Central banks in emerging markets are driving up gold - buying demand through their "de - dollarization" strategies [2]. - The World Silver Association expects the global silver supply - demand gap to narrow by 21% in 2025, to 117.6 million ounces (about 3658 tons) due to a 1% decrease in demand and a 2% increase in total supply [2]. 4. Capital Flow - Recently, the net long positions of CFTC managed funds in gold and silver have been slightly reduced. In the domestic market, the net long positions of institutions in Shanghai gold have remained at a high level, while those in Shanghai silver have been slightly reduced. The world's largest gold ETF and silver ETF have ended their long - term downward trends and are slowly increasing their positions [3]. 5. Future Investment Logic Evolution No specific content provided in the report. 6. Weekly Strategy - Short - term: Precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly. - Medium - term: Precious metals are expected to remain at a high level. - Long - term: Precious metals are expected to show an upward trend [5]. 7. Support and Resistance - Support for Shanghai gold futures main contract: 755 - 760; Resistance: 790 - 795. - Support for Shanghai silver futures main contract: 8900 - 8930; Resistance: 9400 - 9430 [5].