Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The peak of the northern hemisphere's consumption season can still support the market to some extent, resisting the pressure of increased supply. Coupled with many short - term supply disturbances in the market, oil prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger. However, the consumption season has reached its peak, and attention should be paid to the subsequent performance of US gasoline demand. After that, the supply pressure will gradually increase, and the upside space is limited [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Views - Last week's view: The northern hemisphere's consumption season can support the market to resist supply pressure, but the upside space is limited as the consumption season is at its peak [7]. - This week's trend analysis: At the beginning of the week, potential Russian supply disturbances briefly strengthened oil prices, but Trump's statement dispelled short - term risks, and prices gave back previous gains. Despite poor US gasoline data, traditional consumption seasons and Iraqi supply disturbances kept weekly oil prices in a relatively strong oscillation [7]. - Analysis of fundamentals: The month - spread is firm, diesel leads the crack spread, and US gasoline demand data is cold. Major institutions' monthly reports maintain the expectation of increased inventory but have differences on future demand trends. There are multiple supply disturbances such as EU sanctions on Russia, Trump promoting a Russian agreement, and damaged production in the Iraqi Kurdish region [7]. 2. Weekly Highlights - Near - month spreads: After the disturbance of the Middle - East conflict ended, the month - spreads remained firm, indicating tight physical supply and demand. The month - spread of Middle - East Oman crude was stronger and affected the internal SC month - spread [9][11]. - Diesel crack: Globally, the crack spread maintained an oscillating or strengthening trend. Diesel crack led the market, and the 211 crack spread (with 1/2 diesel) was stronger than the 321 crack spread (with 1/3 diesel) in all regional markets, suggesting the continuation of strong market conditions [14]. - US gasoline demand: As of July 11, US crude inventories decreased unexpectedly, but refined product inventories increased unexpectedly. The refinery operating rate decreased slightly to 93.9%. US weekly crude exports contributed to the inventory decline. Gasoline demand after four - week smoothing decreased by more than 2 million barrels per day, but previous data were good, and further tracking is needed [16]. - Global diesel inventory: Diesel inventories in major consumer countries like the US and China are at multi - year lows. The long - term production contraction of Saudi Arabia and Russia has led to global crude oil lightening and supported diesel crack spreads [19]. - Main energy institutions' July reports: IEA, OPEC, and EIA's July reports showed no significant adjustment to demand, but IEA and EIA significantly increased supply expectations. There are differences in their expectations for the future. EIA's balance sheet shows relative balance in the third quarter and inventory surpluses in the following quarters [20]. - OPEC+ balance sheet: OPEC's July report predicts an increase in global oil demand and non - OPEC+ supply in 2025 and 2026. To achieve supply - demand balance, OPEC+ needs to increase crude oil supply by 400,000 barrels per day each year. It maintains the global economic growth forecast [22]. - OPEC+ 8 - country production: Excluding Kazakhstan, the other 7 OPEC+ countries well - executed production plans in June. Saudi Arabia may use a new calculation standard to report production, which is seen as evidence that OPEC+ led by Saudi Arabia tends to compete for market share. There are rumors of a potential 548,000 - barrel - per - day production increase in August [25]. - Supply disturbances: EU sanctions on Russia have limited direct impact on Russian oil. Trump's threat of tariffs poses a risk after 50 days. Drone attacks in the Iraqi Kurdish region reduced oil production by 140,000 - 150,000 barrels per day, which can boost oil prices but has limited upside potential [27]. - North American hurricane forecast: According to NOAA, there is a 60% chance of above - average hurricane activity this year, which is relatively calmer than last year. Currently, there are no hurricanes in the US Gulf, and the probability of cyclone formation in the next 7 days is less than 40%, but the predicted location is close to platforms and refineries [29]. 3. Price, Spread, and Crack - Crude oil futures and spot trends: The report presents various charts of crude oil futures and spot prices, including different regions and benchmarks [32]. - Brent and WTI crude oil positions: Charts show the net long positions of different participants in Brent and WTI futures and options [34][37]. - Crude oil futures structure: Displays the futures structure of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC crude oil [40]. - Crude oil month - spread: Presents the month - spread trends of different crude oils over time [43]. - Cross - market futures and spot spreads: Analyzes cross - market futures and spot spreads of different crude oils [46][49]. - Saudi OSP: Saudi Arabia has adjusted the official selling prices of different grades of crude oil to different regions in August compared to July [56]. - Refined product prices and crack spreads: Covers the prices and crack spreads of refined products in futures and spot markets in different regions [61][63][66][69]. 4. Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - Global supply: Includes the supply of non - OPEC, OPEC, and the total global crude oil supply, as well as the supply of major non - OPEC and OPEC countries [82][85][88]. - Global demand: Covers the demand of OECD, non - OECD, and the total global crude oil demand, as well as the demand of major countries and regions [106]. - Inventory: Analyzes inventories in different regions such as the US, OECD, Europe, Japan, ARA, Singapore, and China [115][118][120]. - EIA balance sheet: The EIA balance sheet shows that the global crude oil market will have a supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 [136]. - OPEC balance sheet: OPEC's balance sheet predicts global oil demand and non - OPEC+ supply in 2025 and 2026, and calculates the required OPEC+ crude oil supply for balance [140][142][145]. - OECD inventory, consumption days, and floating storage: Provides data on OECD's land - based commercial inventory, strategic petroleum reserve, consumption days, and floating storage [147]. 5. EIA Weekly Report and Others - EIA weekly report main data: Presents data on US crude oil production, commercial crude oil inventory, refinery operating rate, and total crude - chain inventory [151]. - Supply data: Includes the production of crude oil, gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel [154].
原油周报:伊拉克供应扰动令油价周末前略微走强-20250718
Dong Wu Qi Huo·2025-07-18 14:03