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产业赛道与主题投资风向标:连板空间与主题投资的短期胜率、赔率
Tianfeng Securities·2025-07-19 07:59

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy - The report identifies the "连板空间" (limit-up space) as a key indicator of short-term market sentiment, categorizing it into four phases: emotional freezing period (2-3 limit-ups), chaotic rotation period (4-6 limit-ups), main upward period (7-9 limit-ups), and market climax period (10 limit-ups and above) [2][8][12] - During the market climax period, theme investment shows superior short-term win rates and odds, followed by the chaotic rotation period. However, for mid-term performance (20 trading days), the main upward period outperforms the chaotic rotation period [2][8][12] Group 2: Key Themes - AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) is experiencing high demand due to policy support, with expectations for performance to exceed forecasts. The market for intelligent computing centers is projected to grow at an annual rate of over 25%, reaching a market size of over 280 billion yuan by 2028 [34][39] - Urban renewal has been highlighted as a significant focus, with the recent Central Urban Work Conference emphasizing the need for high-quality urban development and structural optimization [42][45] - The stablecoin sector is gaining attention as global regulatory frameworks are being established, with recent legislative actions in the U.S. and Hong Kong promoting the internationalization of the renminbi [47][48] Group 3: Policy Dynamics - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) is pushing for state capital to concentrate on forward-looking strategic emerging industries, emphasizing technology innovation and industrial integration [55][56] - The National Development and Reform Commission has announced plans to promote the construction of over 100,000 high-power charging facilities by the end of 2027, focusing on the integration of charging networks with existing infrastructure [58][59] - The recent "Action Plan for Measurement Support for New Quality Productivity Development (2025-2030)" aims to address key measurement technology needs across ten priority industries, including AI and new energy [63]