Minsheng Securities·2025-07-19 09:20Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for the oil and gas sector, highlighting specific companies with strong performance and dividend potential [12]. Core Insights - OPEC+ is increasing production as planned, with a June 2025 output rise of 458,000 barrels per day, slightly above the target of 411,000 barrels per day, indicating strong production momentum [1][9]. - Major international oil agencies, including EIA and IEA, have raised their forecasts for supply growth in 2025, with EIA adjusting supply and demand growth by 26,000 and 1,000 barrels per day respectively [2][9]. - The report notes a decrease in U.S. crude oil production and refinery processing rates, with production at 13.38 million barrels per day, down by 100,000 barrels from the previous week [3][10]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Performance - As of July 18, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $69.28 per barrel, a decrease of 1.53% week-on-week, while WTI futures settled at $67.34 per barrel, down 1.62% [10][43]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - EIA forecasts global supply and demand for 2025 at 10,461 million and 10,354 million barrels per day, respectively, indicating a surplus of 1.07 million barrels per day [2][9]. - OPEC's forecast for 2025 non-DOC supply is 6,265 million barrels per day, with global demand at 10,513 million barrels per day, suggesting a supply-demand gap if DOC maintains its production [2][9]. Company Performance and Recommendations - The report highlights specific companies for investment: - China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) with a target PE of 10 for 2024A and a recommendation to buy [5]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) with a target PE of 9 for 2024A and a recommendation to buy [5]. - Sinopec with a target PE of 14 for 2024A and a recommendation to buy [5]. - Zhongman Petroleum with a recommendation to buy due to its growth potential [12]. - New Natural Gas with a recommendation to buy, focusing on its growth phase [12]. Market Trends - The oil and gas sector has shown resilience, with the sector index rising by 1.6% as of July 18, 2025, outperforming the broader market indices [13][18].