电负荷再创新高叠加铁水超预期，煤价延续反弹

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [7]. Core Views - The coal price has shown a continuous rebound due to rising daily consumption and decreasing inventory as the peak season approaches [5]. - The global coal shipment volume to China reached 4.166 million tons, a weekly increase of 2.9 tons, but a year-on-year decrease of 19.7% [5]. - The report suggests increasing allocation to coal stocks that benefit from price elasticity, highlighting the significant dividend yield and value of core stocks in the long term [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The coal index slightly decreased by 0.87%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 1.09% [16]. - Year-to-date, the coal index has dropped by 12.9%, while the broader index has risen by 3.14% [16]. - The current PE ratio for the coal sector is 12.6 times, ranking it among the lowest in the A-share market [17]. 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators Overview - As of July 18, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 642 RMB/ton, a weekly increase of 1.6% [3][30]. - The average daily output of 462 sample mines is 5.697 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.97% [43]. - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi is 70.7%, with a slight increase from the previous week [41]. 2.2 Annual Long-term Contract Price - The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) is 666 RMB/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [29]. 2.3 Spot Prices - The spot price for Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal increased by 10 RMB/ton week-on-week [30]. - The price for Shanxi weakly adhesive coal (5500K) rose by 24 RMB/ton, marking a 4.8% increase [33]. 2.4 Supply and Demand - The operating rate of coal mines in the Shanxi-Inner Mongolia-Shaanxi region is 81.1%, with a slight increase from the previous week [41]. - Daily consumption at six major power plants rose to 89.9 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.1% [47]. - The total inventory of thermal coal at 462 sample mines is 337.5 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 128.3% [63]. 3. Coking Coal 3.1 Key Indicators Overview - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port increased to 1440 RMB/ton, a weekly rise of 6.67% [81]. - The average daily output of coking coal from 523 sample mines is 77 million tons, with an operating rate of 86.1% [81]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The price of Shanxi coking coal rose to 1150 RMB/ton, marking a 9.5% increase week-on-week [82]. - The price of Henan coking coal remains stable at 1380 RMB/ton, with no change from the previous week [82].